چکیده:
t
This paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of
fluctuations in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, based on the
work of Boschen and Mills, a set of non-monetary variables
which can affect economic growth have been selected and by
using an illustrative business cycle model in which the
production depends on the past and current value of real
shocks, the influence of these variables have been studied,
Based on the obtained results, the selected non-monetary
variables have had a significant effect on the business cycles in
[ran at the time period of 1959-1999, and introducing the
monetary variables into a model with the presence of real
variables have not increased the explanatory power of the
model considerably.
خلاصه ماشینی:
a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence of these variables have been studied.
real business cycle 1- Introduction In the late 1970s, the leading economists of major schools of thought such as Tobin, Friedman and Lucas all agreed that the rate of growth of the money supply has a real effect on the economy and plays an important role in the explanation of the output fluctuation.
In the early 1980s, some empirical evidence on the lack of significance of influence on output and employment was found which we can point to the studies of Sims ( 1980, 1982) and Litterman and Wies ( 1985) which showed that in the system of Vector Autoregressive Models (VAR), when the interest rate is added to the variables of the system, monetary shocks have a low explanatory power on output variation.
The above studies along with supply shocks associated with the two oil price increases of the 1970s and failure of the demand oriented Keynesian models to account adequately for rising unemployment accompanied by accelerating inflation stimulated the transition from monetary to real theories of business cycles.
Based on the obtained results, the variables of world oil price, government expenditures, population over fourteen years of age, the imports of intermediate and capital goods all have had a significant effect on the business cycles in Iran at the time period of 1959-1999.