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the optimum level of non-oil exports: a theatrical proposal on iran''s case

نویسنده:

(14 صفحه - از 89 تا 102)

Iran is one of the biggest oil producer and exporter of the world. Due to the special administrative and constitutional structure of the country, i.e. economic, social and political reasons, the government budget and revenues depend heavily on oil exports. The aim of this article is to suggest a theoretical proposal on the optimum level of non-oil exports such that it will clear up the idea of export promotion of non-oil exports and being" independent of oil revenues" not only for official authorities, but also be appropriate and meaningful for the economic agents to continue the proper activities. In order to reduce oil revenues a level of non-the dependence on oil exports should be considered such that the expected costs of holding this level are minimized. This optimum level has been analyzed with the selected strategy arising from the administrative and legal structures. The optimum level with respect to a benchmark was estimated, and finally analyzed and compared the relationship between the actual level and the optimum level of non-oil exports.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"The aim of this article is to suggest a theoretical proposal on the optimum level of non-oil exports such that it will clear up the idea of export promotion of non-oil exports and being" independent of oil revenues" not only for official authorities, but also be appropriate and meaningful for the economic agents to continue the proper activities. And, finally how the relationship between the optimum level of non-oil should exports, on the one hand, and the government revenues and budget, on the other, be? 3B- Theoretical Model We can say that the optimum level of non-oil exports is that accumulated income by which the government is able to use it in order to compensate for the budget deficit, and to finance foreign exchange needs. This article reviews these two contradictory ideas and views, and suggests a theoretical model on the optimum level of non-oil exports such that the government should be able to reduce its dependence on oil revenues. In the theoretical model, we minimize the expected costs of holding the optimum level and consider two kinds of costs: first the opportunity costs of foregone tax revenues in the case of having non-oil revenues and other incomes and second the social cost of default of non-oil revenues. Operating these strategies requires the adjustment of the administrative and legal structures and also reduction and omission of the social and economic reasons until the government is able to finance its expenditures mainly by taxation, with respect to its three roles_ optimum resource allocation, income redistributions and economic stabilization."

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