چکیده:
The effective factors on the economic growth of Iran during the first 5-year
development plan are studied. The main characteristics of this period are that
the first development plan began after the end of war during which some of the
unused capacities of the war period were utilized. While the budget deficit was
continued in this period the government also pursued policies such as
devaluation of Rial, borrowing from aboard, liberalization and privatization to
reconstruct the economy and promote the export. In this paper we consider growth
factors as consumption and investment of domestic demand, promotion of export,
import substitution for consumer, investment and capital goods and also domestic
demand for intermediate goods as a proxy for change in technology of production.
It is shown that despite intensive devaluation of national money (Rial) in this
period, due to weak production infrastructure and technology, the Iran''''s economy
was unable to efficiently take advantage of foreign trade for its growth. The
impact of foreign trade i.e. the total impact of export promotion and import
substitution in his period is almost equal to zero; and the growth of Iran''''s
economy dependent on the domestic demand.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"In this paper we consider growth factors as consumption and investment of domestic demand, promotion of export, import substitution for consumer, investment and capital goods and also domestic demand for intermediate goods as a proxy for change in technology of production.
e. the total impact of export promotion and import substitution in his period is almost equal to zero; and the growth of Iran''''s economy dependent on the domestic demand.
Keywords: Input - Output, Devaluation, Export Expansion Import Substitution, Liberalization 1- Introduction Iran''''s economy experiences a new chapter of economic policies in the post-war era, beginning with the first 5 – year development plan.
This is while the rate of foreign exchange was intensively increased in the period of study, but had no considerable impact on export and economic growth.
The impact of import substitution for intermediate goods is negative for all sectors, which can be attributed to expansion of post-war economic of oil revenue and foreign loan were available to provide raw materials for the factories.
The comparesion of the impact of export expansion and import substitution shows that foreign trade had no impact on Iran’s economic growth and its net impact is almost zero (0.
This situation is in a way that the impact of export expansion and import substitution was only considerable for industries of main metal production, oil and mine and for other sectors was near zero and negative.
But in industries, which demand higher economic and competitive potentials, the impact of export expansion and import substitution was negative."