نویسنده: pourmoghim، seyyed javad؛
بهار 1384 - شماره 13 ISC (26 صفحه - از 163 تا 188)
Budget deficit constitutes a major fiscal indicator. It has major important ramification on macro-economic position of all nations. In developing countries generally, and in Iran specifically, governments are likely to spend more on miscellaneous as well as differentiated obligations causing high expenditure costs with respect to their limited revenues. This causes a budget deficit to incur. The Iranian officials traditionally have regarded the oil revenue as an income item in budget statement and, generally, use a fraction of this revenue as current expenditure. Looking into this issue, the article analyzes the government’s inter-temporal budget with some adjustment and interpretation. The empirical findings suggest that the country has not been in a sustainable path during the sample period. This article arrives at the conclusion that the Iranian fiscal stance with respect to the future generations is non-stationary and that the fiscal authorities would not be able to repay the incurred debts to the future generations and that the central government is in fact vulnerable, viz., involved with insolvency conditions.
"Section II is a summary of a general overview of different approaches to assessment of fiscal sustainability, beginning with the present value budget constraint, which constitutes the core of this article and a brief explanation of other approaches to - As the main debt of Iranian government is from internal sources, and as the officials’ frequent borrowing from abroad, this article focuses on fiscal sustainability while overlooking the external sustainability which is a minor fact in fiscal stance of the Iranian officials. In fact, this condition will hold as an equality since private agents cannot end up being indebted to the government, and as a consequence sustainable fiscal policy has to respect the present value budget constraint (PVBC) (3) Sustainability thus requires that today’s government debt is matched by an excess of future primary surpluses over primary deficits in present value terms. The government’s one period budget constraint, which describes the dynamics of accumulation of debt at time t can be given as (12) where: = Actual total debt =Expenditure net of interest payments = Adjusted revenue (which is equal to total revenue in the budget minus percent of the oil revenue) = Rate of interest paid on debt By defining (or primary surplus or deficits- primary deficit refers to the fiscal deficit excluding interest payments, and I call it as “core deficit”) in (12), the government budget constraint can be changed as follows: (13) Equation (13) says that actual total debt at time is a function of previous actual debt, amount of interest for the previous actual debt and the core deficit at time."
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