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a change in energy intensity: test of relationship between energy intensity and income in iran

نویسنده:

(8 صفحه - از 123 تا 130)

In this paper we study the long- term trend of energy intensity for Iran. We use a quadratic function of the logarithm of income to take account of the change in trend of energy intensity and test the non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income during 1967- 2002. We find that the long-run coefficient on squared income is negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"We use a quadratic function of the logarithm of income to take account of the change in trend of energy intensity and test the non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income during 1967- 2002. Urbanization associated with an energy-intensive, socio-economic lifestyle, an increasing level of transportation along with industrialization and commercialization, and accelerated consumer and basic material demand all impose major changes in energy use. The evidence for a trend change in energy intensity has been ignored by most models of energy demand, typically assuming a monotonic relationship between energy consumption and the level of economic activity as well as a constant elasticity of energy demand to income. Some studies acknowledge the instability of the estimate of income elasticity through time, by using moving window regressions over a period of six to twelve years, this instability is interpreted as the effect of omitted variables, such as changes in the efficiency of capital, in the industrial mix, or in the energy price regimes, rather than a non-monotonicity in the fundamental relationship with income (Galli, 1998). So, we estimate energy demand for IRAN by using a quadratic function of the logarithm of income, to take account of the change in trend of energy intensity. Table 1, shows the growth rate of energy demand, per capita real GDP, and energy intensity of IRAN in our definition. The level of the logarithm of per capita income which maximizes energy intensity is at this point the long-run income elasticity of energy demand equals unity."

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