خلاصة:
هدف از این مطالعه بررسی اثرات سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان ایران بوده است. در این راستا با استفاده از روششناسی نسبتا جدید الگوهای خودتوضیح برداری عامل تعمیمیافته (FAVAR) و بهرهگیری از دادههای فصلی سری زمانی 110 متغیر اقتصاد کلان ایران طی دوره 1391:4-1369:1، سیاستهای پولی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته شده است. جهت ارزیابی سیاستهای پولی، با توجه به اجرای قانون بانکداری بدون ربا، بجای نرخ بهره از چهار متغیر حجم نقدینگی، پایه پولی، بدهی بانکها به بانک مرکزی و اعتبارات اعطایی سیستم بانکی به بخش خصوصی، به عنوان ابزار پولی استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان میدهد اثر سیاست پولی بر تولید در کوتاهمدت چندان روشن نیست اما خنثایی پول در بلندمدت را میتوان پذیرفت. ضمن آنکه اجرای سیاست پولی انبساطی اثر پایداری بر سطح عمومی قیمتها داشته و در کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت منجر به افزایش تورم شده است. مقایسه نتایج دو الگوی VAR و FAVAR و استفاده از الگوی FAVAR جهت ارزیابی اثر سیاستهای پولی نشان میدهد، معمای قیمت در اقتصاد ایران بوجود نیامده است.
The objective of this study is economic valuation of the use-value of Shadegan Wetland. Market pricing which is a method based on the supply side was used to valuate direct use values of the wetland. Also، to valuate indirect use and option values، choice experiment method was used، a method that is based on the demand side. Necessary data were obtained from questionnaires filled in villages in the vicinity of the wetland and also some of the cities of the Khuzestan province in 2014. Furthermore، data on the potential uses of the wetland were gathered from some cities outside of the province. In addition to estimating the indirect use and option values using Logit models، this study sought to estimate willingness to pay for each of these uses. According to the obtained results، the annual value of the direct، indirect and potential uses of the wetland were 37478، 1347 and 4755 billion Rials; it follows that the total economic value per annum of the uses of the wetland amounted to 43580 billion Rials which is equivalent to $1،894،782،608 based on an exchange rate of 23000 Rials for one Dollar. Based on the findings of the present study، the economic use value of international wetland of Shadegan is quite significant and people residing in the vicinity of the wetland welcome government’s protective programs and are willing to conserve the wetland. Hence، not only should be revised the hitherto trend towards protection of the wetland but also measures should be taken to improve qualitatively the status of its attributes. Based on the results of this study، it is recommended that more training programs are held to introduce the Shadegan wetland and that results of scientific research are used to increase public awareness about the economic value of Shadegan wetland.
ملخص الجهاز:
"com) Harberger Shoven and Whalley Cobb-Douglas Constant Elasticity Substitution Computable General Equilibrim Overlapping Generations Social Accounting Matrix Leldo Auerbach and Kotlikoff Bayler Myles Lumbantobing and Ichihashi Ormeachea and Yoo Amir Atkinson and Stiglitz 6 Blanchard and Fisher Ramsey Hendricks Auerbach and Kotlikoff Barro and Sala- Martin Applied General Equilibrium Models Ramsey Cass Rasmussen and Rutherford Steady State Initial Endowments General Algebraic Modeling System Mix Complementarity Problem Armington به ترتیب، استادیاران و دانشجوی دکترای دانشگاه شید چمران اهواز.
JEL Classification: H20, D31, O41 Keywords: Tax, Income Distribution, expenditure index, SAM Economic Growth, Energy and Environment: The Analysis of E3 Model in Iran Mohamad Hosein Mahdavi Adeli (PhD) and Rouhollah Nazari (MSc) 2 Received: 2015/4/4 Accepted: 2015/12/22 Abstract: In the recent decades both financial crises and the environmental changes especially global warming have been of the major issues of the current world.
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