خلاصة:
Housing market in Iran got out of recession in year 1384 and turn into abnormal growth. But following the housing price growth، which continued until 1386، it deals with the slowdown of the housing market and stable prices in the spring of 1387. Afterward، decreasing trend in housing prices continued in the summer، in spite of increase in global housing prices. In this paper، it is investigated that whether these prices increases rooted in fundamental economic factors or is caused by bubbles. In this study، monetary policy transmission mechanism is assumed in a linear model by rational expectations. Using GMM and a forward-looking New-Keynesian model for a closed economy، the real interest rate effect on housing real return has been discussed in period 1 / 1380 to 6 / 1387. The results indicate that during this period، real interest rates has negative effect and the lag of housing real return and GDP have positive effect on housing real return.
ملخص الجهاز:
Keywords: Housing bubble, Monetary policy, New Keynesian model, Forward-looking behavior 1- Introduction The housing market exited recession in 2005 and flourished, so much so that we witnessed rising housing prices globally.
They showed that these fundamental factors, income and interest rates, play the main role in explaining fluctuations in housing prices in the housing market, while expected capital returns and, consequently, speculative behaviors, played little role in explaining the increase in housing prices in China.
In the second model, the significance of the bubble variable was tested, and the results showed the high importance of the bubble factor in determining the behavior of housing prices in Tehran.
The monetary policy transmission mechanism is assumed to be a linearized form of rational expectations and is generalized to consider the effect of housing prices on aggregate demand and the deviation of housing prices from fundamental factors, i.
In this research, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is assumed to be a linearized form of rational expectations and generalized in such a way as to consider the effect of housing prices on aggregate demand and the deviation of housing prices from fundamental factors, namely the bubble.
So far, considering the significance of the real interest rate and production growth variables, which were assumed as fundamental factors of the economy, it can be concluded that during the period under review, part of the sharp increase in housing prices has a fundamental and economic justification.
(
, 
, 
)
