خلاصة:
one of the strategic priorities in the above documents. Iran is one of the leading energy producers in the world due to its rich oil and gas reserves. Therefore, it is very necessary to consider the scenarios based on the future regarding the petrochemical industries, especially the creation of intraterritorial hubs. In the present research, among the methods of qualitative content analysis, scenario explanation, proposition prioritization, sustainable planning in the conditions of uncertainty, and strategy evaluation, it was done in three phases. Based on this, 20 experts have been interviewed. The results of the research showed that the optimistic scenarios are based on the reduction of sanctions, economic stability and exchange rate, foreign financing, participation of domestic investors, and access to technology, but provided that the government has direct participation. Establishing these conditions requires making changes in foreign policy with the aim of removing sanctions, after which it is expected that other conditions will also be established. In medium scenarios, the importance of reducing sanctions is still maintained, and without it, we cannot hope for the development of petrochemical hubs. Other conditions of optimistic scenarios with the help of the government in carrying out this project are established in these scenarios. Therefore, the way the government intervenes in carrying out these projects will be decisive.
ملخص الجهاز:
The research results showed that optimistic scenarios are based on the reduction of sanctions, economic stability and exchange rates, external financial security, participation of domestic investors, and access to technology, but conditional upon the government having direct participation.
Table 1: Research Implementation Phases - Identification of key factors and primary driving forces after defining the subject and making decisions regarding the time horizon through library studies in the field of the petrochemical industry; Phase 1; - Identification of key uncertainties using the Delphi method and expert scoring in a researcher-made questionnaire.
- Scenario analysis and evaluation to identify the most optimistic, probable, and pessimistic scenarios; Phase 3 - Presentation of proposed strategies by petrochemical industry experts so that planning and decision-making for relevant managers in the future is facilitated.
Data Analysis of the First Phase of the Research Key factors and driving forces, based on the opinions of industry experts and the relevant questionnaire to evaluate their level of influence and uncertainty, were fuzzified using a 5-point Likert scale and triangular fuzzy numbers as follows.
Data analysis in the third stage With the achievement of consistent scenarios obtained from the Scenario wizard software in the second phase of the research, in this stage, the consistent scenarios are analyzed and evaluated to identify the most optimistic, most probable, and most pessimistic scenarios, and strategies are proposed by petrochemical industry experts for each of these scenarios to facilitate decision-making and planning in this regard in the future.
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