خلاصة:
Inflation is a major challenge for modern economies and a topic frequently discussed in people's daily lives. It impacts all aspects of the economy, from consumer spending, business investment, and employment rates to government programs, tax policies, and interest rates. While numerous books and articles in economics have addressed inflation, it appears that the issue has not received sufficient attention. Given the trajectory of this economic variable in Iran during the 1990s and its persistent high levels, it is crucial to explore ways to control this damaging trend in the national economy and assess its costs for the government, social institutions, and the public. It is essential to determine whether controlling inflation merely alleviates its effects or offers a true remedy. Furthermore, does addressing inflation require the heavy cost of economic turmoil, the loss of personal freedoms, and the imposition of authoritarian controls to combat this severe economic ailment? To answer these questions, we must first carefully examine the causes of inflation in Iran and then seek solutions to mitigate its harmful effects and consequences. Studies indicate that before this decade, money supply was the primary driver of inflation in Iran. However, with the onset of sanctions at the beginning of this period, the impact of external shocks became evident through increased exchange rates, emerging as a key factor influencing inflation. Additionally, the persistence of inflation over time has led to inflationary expectations, further exacerbating the issue.
ملخص الجهاز:
Imported inflation and the exchange rate Fluctuations in the exchange rate affect the aggregate demand of the economy through imports, exports, and money demand, as well as the aggregate supply of the economy through the cost of imported intermediate goods, the net effect of these two on prices depends on the initial economic conditions of the countries.
In domestic and foreign research, among the factors affecting inflation, one can mention liquidity growth and money supply, imported inflation, exchange rate, sanctions, government budget deficit, inflationary expectations, output gap, interest rate, mandatory facilities, oil price shock, and central bank independence, with liquidity growth and exchange rate increases having the largest share.
- Adabi Firouzjaei, Baqer; Gholami, Ahmad (2024), Investigating the effect of global prices on the dynamics of Iran's economy with emphasis on food inflation within the framework of the general equilibrium model, Journal of Economic Policy, Year 16, Number 31.
- Khazrazadegan, Hamed; Heydari, Hassan (2023), Asymmetric effects of exchange rate on inflationary expectations in Iran's inflation-targeting economy, Journal of Economic Research, Volume 58, Number 4.
- Gholami, Amir; Ahmadi, Mohammad Mehdi; Pourghobadi, Fatemeh (2021), Investigating the effect of central bank independence and policy targeting on inflation control in the economies of developing countries, Economic Strategy Quarterly, Year 10, Number 4, Consecutive 39.
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