خلاصة:
This research has been carried out with the aim of the future environmental studies of Iran by exploring and validating the scenario in Isfahan by hybridization or hybridization. The analysis was carried out at two qualitative and quantitative levels. In the qualitative section, which is the grounded technique of the theory, the basis of the discovery of scenarios, using the experiences of environmental experts, the results of data analysis were presented based on the triple coding steps and in the open coding process, more than 245 propositions Significant and 134 corresponding concepts were extracted, and in the next stage, 72 subcategories of these corresponding concepts were extracted. In the subcategory, there are two types of categorization that relate to the scenarios of the Iranian-Islamic model of progress and the Western model of development, which includes 27 sub-categories and other hands on the future scenarios of environmental culture, which includes 45 sub categories. Finally, due to the conceptual relationship between the categories together in the pivotal coding stage, three categories of issues for future scenarios of environmental culture and eight core categories for development and development scenarios were developed in the form of a model. Then, the model of structural equation modeling algorithm was tested. The findings of the qualitative section of the research showed that, in terms of contributing to the research, optimistic, probable and pessimistic scenarios of the future of environmental culture based on the development of two patterns of Iranian Islamic model scenarios were the progress and western pattern of development, and in the quantitative section, statistical results have shown that the effect Each of the scenarios of the Islamic Iranian model of development and scenarios of the western pattern of development has been significant on the future scenarios of environmental culture with coefficients (0.46) and (0.81).
ملخص الجهاز:
Based on the findings of the qualitative section of the research, from the perspective of the research participants, optimistic, probable, and pessimistic scenarios, the future of environmental culture is based on the development of the Iranian-Islamic progress pattern and the Western development pattern scenarios.
Statistical results from the quantitative section also show that the effect of each of the Iranian-Islamic progress pattern and the Western development pattern scenarios on the future environmental culture scenarios is significant with coefficients of 0.
Also, specifically, we investigate the nature of the social environmental behaviors of citizens of Isfahan as a statistical sample of the Iranian population; therefore, in an important environmental issue that encompasses all of human life and activities and affects the common destiny of members of a society and even all humans (Jafari Nia, 1391: 2), a future-oriented and future-research approach should be followed.
In the future-research approach to environmental culture, attention to two types of policy – the Western development model and the Iranian-Islamic progress model – is fundamental.
Therefore, developing a model in each specialized field undoubtedly requires the use of factors that, without attention to them, the model development process will not lead to appropriate results; therefore, this research with a future-research approach such as qualitative scenario analysis 1, surveying, and 2 modeling will present and analyze the environmental culture of Iran in the case study of the city of Isfahan.
In other words, the scenarios of the future of environmental culture are influenced by the two models of Iranian-Islamic progress and the Western development model.
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