خلاصة:
Considering the important role of pension funds in creating economic, political, cultural security, etc., paying attention to their financial behavior has a particular importance. Estimating the number and cost of long-term obligations of pensioners of the social security organization and how it is financially sustainable by changing the pension payment scheme of the Taieen taklif law to formal definite participation is one of the objectives of this research. In this research, in accordance with Sterman's methodology, the interactions of the relevant components in the framework of systems dynamics were investigated, and the model was validated using the data of the above organization in 2016-2021. Based on the findings of this research, assuming the continuation of the existing conditions, the number of retirees and their survivors and, accordingly, the future costs of the organization will increase significantly. Also, by changing the pension payment plan in the implementation of the above law to the formal definite participation plan, savings amounted to 1982 thousand billion rials will be created for the organization in the 35 years studied (based on the minimum wage in 1400). According to the results, the new plan is more successful than the current plan in ensuring financial stability and intergenerational justice, but considering the country's economic conditions (annual inflation and low employment rate), it is not recommended for other types of retirement.
ملخص الجهاز:
A comparative analysis of the financial sustainability of DB-PAYG and NDC schemes in the mandatory retirement of the Social Security Organization using a systems dynamics approach Zahra Karimian Sichani 1, Dr. Mohammad Hassan Cheraghali 2*, Dr. Ali Dehghani 3 1.
Estimating the number and cost of long-term obligations of the Social Security Organization's pensioners and how to ensure its financial sustainability by changing the pension payment scheme for mandatory retirements under the law regarding the determination of status through a specific formal participation scheme is among the objectives of this research.
This research attempts, given the upward growth of retirees under the aforementioned law, while providing an approximate estimate of the number of insured members receiving pensions and consequently the future costs of the organization, to address the issues by comparing the financial performance of the current scheme and the proposed Notional Defined Contribution (non-financial)3 scheme in retirements under the aforementioned law as a solution to reduce the related problems.
In this research, using the system dynamics method, a model is presented that can be used to predict the number of applicants for the mandatory retirement law in the next 30 years, the changes occurred in the number of retirees, survivors, and the cost of relevant long-term obligations in the current scheme (DB-PAYG), and compare the current status with a formal defined contribution scheme (as a proposed solution to reduce the future problems of the fund).
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