خلاصة:
Due to the structure of exchange rate regime in Iran and its dependence on oil revenues in recent decades, it is expected that exchange rate changes can be regarded as a consequence of major changes in oil price. In this regard, the exchange rate increases and decreases can influence the level of employment of firms by affecting the amount of their profitability, and of course, this kind of influence can be asymmetric. Based on this, the present study has investigated the non-linear effect of exchange rate on employment in Iran in the framework of a basic model and five sectoral models (agriculture; services; mining; water, electricity and gas; manufacturing and construction sectors). For this purpose, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach and annual data in period 1968-2017 have been used. The results of the basic model show that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on total employment, but decreases in exchange rate have a reverse effect on total employment. Similarly, the model estimation for five sectors shows that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on employment of these sectors. However, the effect of decreases in exchange rate on employment in services, mining, water, electricity, and gas; manufacturing; and construction sectors is reversed. Hence, to sum up, for four sectors including mining, water, electricity and gas, manufacturing and construction (partially), the exchange rate has had an asymmetric effect on employment in Iran economy.
ملخص الجهاز:
On this basis, the present research examines the non-linear effect of the exchange rate on employment in Iran, in the form of a baseline model and 5 sectoral models (agricultural, services, mining, water, electricity, gas, manufacturing industries, and construction sectors).
Keramat Kahriz (2016) examined the asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on employment in the agricultural and industrial sectors of Iran during the period 1978-2014 using an autoregressive distributed lag model.
4. Results In this section, after examining the stationarity of the variables, the asymmetric analysis of the effect of the exchange rate on employment using the base model and the sectoral model (in 5 sectors: agriculture, services, mining and water, electricity and gas, manufacturing industries, and construction) will be estimated based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with non-linear (asymmetric) distribution lags.
According to Table (4), the estimated coefficients of the non-linear model for the mining sector in the short term show that although increases in the exchange rate do not have a significant effect on mining sector employment, decreases in it have a significant (at a 90 percent confidence level) and inverse effect on employment in this sector with a one-year lag.
According to Table (6), the estimated coefficients of the non-linear model for the services sector in the short term show that increases and decreases in the exchange rate have a significant (at a 90 percent confidence level) and inverse effect on employment in the services sector.
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