خلاصة:
It is not newly formed, but rather the result of the interests of some countries in the region and geopolitical competitions among them, the maneuvering of extra-regional powers, the fluidity of geopolitical discussions and topics, and the favorable conditions for the emergence of crisis-creating groups and extremist thoughts in the political environment of Middle Eastern countries. The complexity of the interactions of these extremist groups and regional actors, their expansive explosive actions and operations, the different and conflicting positions of regional and extra-regional powers against the actions of these groups, inter-group hostile conflicts, etc., caused the analysis of the expansion process and prediction of their future situation to be conducted based on complexity theories (chaos and fractal) and the intertwining of these theories with the concept of the butterfly effect. The results indicate that the chaotic nature of the Southwest Asian space, which is influential and influenced by three levels—intra-national, regional, and extra-regional—has given these groups existence and has led to their regular organization, receipt of financial and military aid, utilization of cyberspace, the ideology of these groups, and benefiting from geocultural supports, creating conditions for reproduction, expanding the scope of influence, and ultimately their uncontrollability. Although the expansion process of these extremist currents will be limited under the influence of the region's geostrategic conditions and the pressure of regional-global coalitions, if national and regional political spaces are not de-chaotized, the reproduction of similar groups in the corners of Southwest Asia will not be far from reality.
ملخص الجهاز:
In response to this question, the first hypothesis is that according to chaos theory, the diversity of conflicting interests and goals of the influential countries in Southwest Asia in the field of foreign policy, and the lack of legitimacy and the inability of governments to timely address the political and identity demands of citizens in the field of domestic politics, have caused the emergence of chaos and disorder and have provided the basis for the formation of takfiri-extremist currents.
In this article, according to chaos theory, the factor that has provided the basis for the chaotic space of the geographical and political environment of Southwest Asia is power and hostile power-creating competitions; and the factor that, from the perspective of fractal theory, has caused self-similarity, repetition, and the empowerment of takfiri groups such as ISIS, has been gaining power and playing in power-seeking competitions ِ has been.
Generally, one of the important indicators that played a role in increasing the power of ISIS ِ in Iraq is the expansion of disputes and competitions between regional actors in recent years as a result of new regional crises, including in Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, and other Arab countries.
For example, the field advances of ISIS in Iraq, the activity and territorial expansion of Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups in Yemen, various types of groups ِ and Takfiri-extremist currents in Syria, and the inability of military and security forces to confront them, have led to many surprises and concerns and have caused various questions to be raised about these terrorist groups, their performance, and also the consequences of their control over parts of the territory of the aforementioned countries.
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