خلاصة:
The importance of the housing finance system is such that one economist assesses its importance in the current century as being comparable to the importance of the steam engine in the process of industrial development. The relationship between housing prices and credit facilities constitutes one of the most important concerns of policymakers, and the implementation of credit facility policies without regard to theoretical foundations and their effects on inflation and growth can lead to harmful results in the housing economy and the overall economy of the country. The existence of a relationship between housing facilities and housing prices does not mean that housing facilities should be limited and controlled to control housing prices; rather, the important issue is that the performance of the housing credit facility system should be such that while contributing to the long-term growth and development of the housing sector, its adverse and destructive economic and social effects are avoided. The selected model of this article, regarding the effect of credits granted by banks on housing prices, is derived from the Griff and Haus (2000) model. The aim of this research is to examine the effect of credits granted by banks on housing prices with special attention to the latest shock that occurred in 1385-86. The equations were estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model based on quarterly data for the period 1370-86. The results obtained from the estimations indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between the facilities granted by banks to the housing sector and housing prices in both the short term and the long term, and also a one-way causal relationship exists from the facilities to the housing price. The estimated elasticities suggest a difference in the degree of impact of variables during periods of price increase and decrease; however, demand increase through population growth will have a more severe effect on housing prices, and conversely, the most effective policy to overcome the recession in the housing sector is the development of credit facilities.
ملخص الجهاز:
The estimated elasticities tell of the difference in the degree of influence of variables during periods of price increase and decrease; nevertheless, the increase in demand through population growth will have a more severe effect on housing prices, and conversely, the most effective policy to overcome the recession in the housing sector is the development of credit facilities.
de Haas 2- Stefan Gerlach a,b, Wensheng Peng 3- Girouard And blondal The estimation results confirm the existence of a stable and long-term relationship between bank facilities, housing prices, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the impact of bank credits on housing prices does not possess high intensity compared to other assets.
For this purpose, using the cointegration regression method, the real housing price level is estimated as a function of the following variables, and in the general case of long-term dynamics of housing prices, the modeling form is as follows: ln(RPh)tn(CO)trieff)tnEMOn(MOR)t )8( H t The variables are defined as follows: LRP: Logarithm of real housing price (thousand Rials) LCO: Logarithm of real coin price (Rials) LMOR: Logarithm of real facilities granted by banks to the housing sector (billion Rials) r: Real interest rate (percent) DEM: Logarithm of household density in the residential unit H The required data has been collected from existing official data sources (Central Bank, Statistical Center).
The long-term coefficients of the explanatory variables represent the elasticity of housing prices with respect to facilities, gold price, household density per residential unit, and the interest rate.
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