خلاصة:
The fundamental issue of this article is what role oil has played in the economic development of Iran, and in this regard, oil revenues will be examined in relation to economic development in Iran. In order to explain the relationship between the country's economic development and oil revenues, first, by referring to published reports, the trend of changes in oil revenues and Iran's economic transformations before and after the victory of the Islamic Revolution have been examined. Thus, a set of necessary information was collected using the library method to answer the main research question. Then, in order to analyze the correlation between the country's economic growth—as one of the main indicators of economic development—and oil revenues, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model was used. It is concluded that oil, as a leading sector in the Iranian economy, was initially a factor towards unbalanced growth and subsequently, through its antecedent and consequent effects on other sectors, provided the means for the relative development of the country. Therefore, Iran's economic development model can be analyzed using the unbalanced growth model inspired by Hirschman's theory. Given that the development of the Islamic Republic in the horizon of 1404 SH, based on the characteristics of the ideal society in the Constitution and the features of the twenty-year vision document, will be a comprehensive and human-centric development, therefore, the strategy of 'using oil revenues while simultaneously providing the ground for the expansion of political, social, and environmental developments' has been proposed as the desirable strategy.
ملخص الجهاز:
(Noferasti, 1376) Total exports of goods and services during the years 1335 to 1365, despite the increase in global oil prices, decreased due to the direction of domestic demand towards export goods and also the economic recession in industrial countries during these years.
In the following year, due to the increase in oil prices, oil revenues increased by about one billion dollars and reached about 91 billion dollars, but the Gross Domestic Product decreased to 402990 billion Rials.
In the year 1362, despite the decrease in oil prices, in terms of increased production and exports, oil revenue was at the level of the previous year's revenue, the GDP growth rate reached 1.
Oil revenues improved slightly in the year 1366, amounting to more than 9 billion dollars, and subsequently increased from 5,260,915 billion Rials in the year 1365 to 6,701,360 billion Rials, showing a growth rate of 4 percent.
9 percent respectively, this economic growth must be attributed to the unprecedented increase in oil revenues during these three years, which amounted to over 891 billion dollars.
Table number (6) shows the share of the growth rate of oil export revenues in the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product during the five-year development plans.
As observed in this table, the share of the oil revenue growth rate in the non-oil Gross Domestic Product growth rate during the years of the first and second development plans was on average 43% and 82% percentage points, respectively.
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