Abstract:
This study presents a framework for calculating the risk of various projects, especially projects under uncertain circumstances. First, the related literature is reviewed and then the relationship between risk and projects is examined. Using a case study an approach is provided to determine the project risk in uncertain circumstances where sufficient data is not available for decision-making. In the new proposed method, instead of using a purely qualitative method, Dempster-Shafer theory has been used because of the limited data for decision making. Finally, the proposed method is examined based on a construction company and the results are presented.
Machine summary:
Continued, Types of Projects Identified RisksActivity Code F1 F2 F3 D1 D2 D3 Q1 Q2 Type of risk Materials and Equipment Designing Machinery Cause The need for special materials The delay in the Ordering materials Low quality of incoming materials to the workshop The multiplicity of adjacent property Insufficient time for designing before the start of Operation Ignoring operating conditions in different layers Low quality of machinery Late provision of spare parts Risk Difficulty in providing and using materials Late provision of Building materials The rejection or rework of Building materials Dealing with unknown effects during the upper levels operation Difficulty in implementing in accordance with the drawings designed Lack of strength in anchor design Doing Related activities with low efficiency and the need for rework Machinery Work stoppage Effect Project time and cost increase Project time increase Project time increase– quality loss Project time and cost increase –quality loss Project time and cost increase –quality loss Project time and cost increase –quality loss Project time and cost increase – project quality loss Project time increase {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} S5 S6 W1 Atmospheric Condition various kinds in the workshop Lack of proper drainage Heavy rain or snow Interference and Cessation of Operation Groundwater flow in the workshop machinery moving Difficulty increase – project quality decrease Project time and cost increase Project time increase Project time W2 extreme cold Compressor failure increase Dempster-Shafer Calculations in Basic Set of possible events will be placed within theEstimation of Probability framework of {L , M , H } set.