چکیده:
t
his study investigates the economic interdependence between Iran
and her main historical trade partner, Germany. We want to see
whether the business cycles are transferring from Germany to Iran via
trade? By using SVAR model we have found that for period of 1990-2006,
Germany have had a slight effect on Iran’s economy. Iran is the importer
of capital and industrial goods from Germany, and the changes in her
import conditions would have effect on domestic product and the supply
side. However, we have found that the cycles and fluctuations in Iran have
mainly been caused by her own domestic conditions. The trade barriers
and control have reduced the effect of the fluctuations from Iran’s trade
partner to move into Iran’s economy.
خلاصه ماشینی:
2- Literature Review: The economists have mentioned different channels which could cause co-movement between countries: bilateral trade, production sharing, similarity in industrial structure, monetary union, financial integration, total trade, gravity variables, market flexibility and so on.
With an ever increasing share of international trade, potentially it has an important effect on business cycles, within as well as between the countries.
According to Perez & Osborn and Artis (2003) an international business cycle is the bilateral relation between short-run growth rates in different countries during a period of time.
As an explanation of these two variables being endogenous we expect due to the large volume of German’s export to Iran when the price level in Germany fluctuates it would have effects on the relative prices and hence Iran’s economy.
Shocks are: 6/ Investigating the Co-Movement and Causality between Iran and Germany Shock number1: interest rate of Germany (RG) Shock number2: the shock of the Germany’s inflation(ING) Shock number 3: the shock of the Iran’s production (LYI) Shock number 4: the shock of the Iran’s inflation (INI) Shock number 5: the shock of the money supply (LM1) Response to Structural One S.
E. {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Fig1: Response of Iran’s Production to the Shocks In Figure 1, the impulse response graph shows that Germany’s interest rate (RG or shock1) has a positive impact on Iranian GDP (LYI).
E. {مراجعه شود به فایل جدول الحاقی} Figure3: Response of Iran’s Money Supply to the Shocks In Figure3, the impulse response graph shows that Germany’s interest rate (shock1) and inflation (shock2) has positive impact on Iranian money supply (LM1).