چکیده:
ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاراﻧﻲ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺼﺪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬاری در ﺳﻬﺎم ﻋﺎدی را دارﻧﺪ در ﻫﻨﮕﺎم ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔـﺬاری ﺑﺎﻳـﺪ ﺑﺮرﺳـﻲﻫـﺎیوﺳﻴﻌﻲ را اﻧﺠﺎم دﻫﻨﺪ، ﭼﺮا ﻛﻪ آن ﻫﺎ داراﻳﻲ ﺳﺮﻳﻊاﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻠﻪ ﺧﻮد )وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ( را ﺑﻪ ﺳﻬﺎم ﻋﺎدی ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﻣـﻲﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨـﺪ. درواﻗﻊ ﭼﻨﺎﻧﭽﻪ آن ﻫﺎ ﺑﺪون ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺘﻪای از ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ، اﻗﺪام ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاری ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ، ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﻲ از ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاریﻋﺎﻳﺪ آن ﻫﺎ ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ. اﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع در ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎزار اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار از ﻛﺎراﻳﻲ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ، ﻧﻴﺎز ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳﻲﻣﻮﺷﻜﺎﻓﺎﻧﻪ و ﻛﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﻛﻤﺘﺮ اﺣﺴﺎس ﻣﻲﺷﻮد، ﭼﺮا ﻛﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎزار اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار در ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﺑﺎزارﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺑﺴﻴﺎر ﻧﺰدﻳـﻚﺑﻪ ارزش ذاﺗﻲ )واﻗﻌﻲ( آن اﺳﺖ، ﺑﻪ ﻋﺒﺎرت ﺑﻬﺘﺮ، ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﺎزار اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺒﻲ از ارزش واﻗﻌـﻲ اوراقاﺳﺖ. اﺻﻠﻲﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران در ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮیﻫﺎی ﺧﻮد ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﻣﻲدﻫﻨﺪ، ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪﻋﺒﺎرت دﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﻲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران از ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاری ﻛﺴﺐ ﺳﻮد اﺳـﺖ. از اﻳـﻦ رو، در ﺑﺨـﺶﻫـﺎﻳﻲ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاری ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻮدآوری ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮی دارد. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ در اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات اﻗﻼم ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻞ دﻫﻨﺪه ﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪو ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﺳﻮد و زﻳﺎن و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﺒﺎدﻻت ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑـﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬـﺎدارﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف ﻛﻠﻲ اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ اﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ آﻳﺎ ﺑـﻴﻦ ﺗﻐﻴﻴـﺮات اﻗـﻼمﺗﺮازﻧﺎﻣﻪ و ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﺳﻮد و زﻳﺎن و ﺣﺠﻢ ﻣﺒﺎدﻻت اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫـﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه درﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری وﺟﻮد دارد ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ؟ اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒـﺎل اﻳـﻦ اﺳـﺖ ﻛـﻪ ﺑـﺎ ﺗﺠﺰﻳـﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت واﻗﻌﻲ ﻣﺒﺎدرت ﺑﻪ اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ از ﻃﺮﻳـﻖ آن ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔـﺬاران ﻗـﺎدر ﺑﺎﺷـﻨﺪ ﺳـﻬﺎم ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ را ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻛﺮده و ﺳﻬﺎم ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ ﺧﻮد را ﺑﺎ اﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎن ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮی ﺧﺮﻳﺪاری ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ.
Inverstor who have intend to inverst in common stock when the investment should do extensive studies, because they conversion their agiiile assets (cash) to the common stock. in fact, if their hands regardless of the factors, proceed to investment will not be paid desirable results from their inverstment.
This topic more in countries who has efficient stock market, feel less need for expert study. Because the market price of securities in such markets is very close to intrinsic value (real) in better words stock market price is appropriate index to real value securities. The main factor in the decision that investors put their interest is rate of return in other words; the main goal is profit for investors from investing. Therefore, they investment in parts that make more profitable. In this research the relationship between changes in balance sheet items, profit and loss and volume of transations with the stock yield affiliated companies in tehran stock exchange have been studied. The overall goal of this study is whether this issue between balance sheet items variations and changes in profit and loss and volume of transactions with companies accepted the changes in efficiency tehran stock exchange has a significant relationship or not? This research followed that with real data analysis can attempt to extract the criteria by which investors are able to compare shares and stock write can buy with more confidence.
خلاصه ماشینی:
ﺟﺪول 5- ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات داراﻳﻲﻫﺎی ﺟﺎری ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم ﻣﺸﺘﺮک ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺷﺮح ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )(Fixed )(Fixed )(Fixed )(None )(None )(Fixed ﻣﺪل اﺣﺘﻤﺎل 22520/0 800000/0 9732/0 آﻣﺎره F ﻣﺪل اﺣﺘﻤﺎل 8300/0 5100/0 4100/0 ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات داراﻳﻲ ﺟﺎری ﻋﺪم رد ﻋﺪم رد رد ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ * ﻣﻨﺒﻊ: ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎره Fﻣﺪل اول ﻛﻪ در آن ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ و ﺳﺮی زﻣـﺎﻧﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ اﺳﺖ،از ﻧﻈﺮ آﻣﺎری ﻣﻌﻨﺎ دار ﻧﻴﺴﺖ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎره دورﺑﻴﻦ واﺗﺴﻦ ﺑـﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﻮد ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ روﺑﺮو ﻧﻴﺴﺖ.
ﺟﺪول 6- ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات داراﻳﻲﻫﺎی ﻏﻴﺮ ﺟﺎری ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم ﻣﺸﺘﺮک ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺷﺮح ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )(Fixed )(Fixed )(Fixed )(None )(None )(Fixed ﻣﺪل اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﻣﺎره 5280/0 47000/0 70325/0 F ﻣﺪل اﺣﺘﻤﺎل 5452/0 5747/0 6841/0 ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات داراﻳﻲ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺟﺎری رد رد رد ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ * ﻣﻨﺒﻊ: ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎره Fﻣﺪل اول ﻛﻪ در آن ﺑﺮش ﻣﻘﻄﻌﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ و ﺳﺮی زﻣـﺎﻧﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ اﺳﺖ،از ﻧﻈﺮ آﻣﺎری ﻣﻌﻨﺎ دار ﻧﻤﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ آﻣﺎره دورﺑﻴﻦ واﺗﺴﻦ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﻮد ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ روﺑﺮو ﻧﻴﺴﺖ.