چکیده:
در اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ، راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﺼﻴﺼﻪﻫﺎی ﺳﻮد و ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﻗﻴﻤﺖﮔﺬاری ﺳﻬﺎم و ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎیﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘـﻪ اﺳـﺖ. ﺧﺼﻴﺼـﻪﻫـﺎی ﺳـﻮد ﻣـﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ در اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﭘﺎﻳﺪاری ﺳﻮد، ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد و ﭘﺪﻳﺪة ﻫﻤﻮارﺳﺎزی ﺳﻮد اﺳﺖ. ﺣﺠﻢﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎری 034 ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻋﻀﻮ ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﻲﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛـﻪ ﺑـﺎ ﺗﻮﺟـﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻣﺤـﺪودﻳﺖﻫـﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ، ﺗﻌﺪاد 89 ﺷﺮﻛﺖ در ﻃﻲ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﻲ 8731 ﺗﺎ 7831 اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻃﻲ دوره ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣـﺪلﻫـﺎی ﻗﻴﻤـﺖﮔـﺬاری،ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﺧﺼﻴﺼﻪﻫﺎی ﺳﻮد )ﭘﺎﻳﺪاری ﺳﻮد و ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد( راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨـﺎدار و ﺑـﻴﻦﻫﻤﻮارﺳﺎزی ﺳﻮد، ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﻗﻴﻤﺖﮔﺬاری راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ دراﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﺟﻬﺖ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻲ و ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ارزش ذاﺗﻲ ﺳﻬﺎم ﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫـﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑـﻮرس اورق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.
In this study, we examine the relation between earnings quality and earnings pattern and pricing of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). We try to find the answer for this question "is there any direct and positive relation between earnings pattern and pricing?”. Earnings patterns which are used are "increasing annual earnings, meeting or exceeding management forecasts and smoothing".
The numbers of statistic community are 430 companies in TSE. We select 98 companies from these statistic communities during 1379 – 1386 by restricting the companies that meet some crotieria for doing the research. We use the information from Financial Statements, Rahavard Novin, Tadbir Pardaz and libraries archives. For testing the Hypothesises, Pearson coefficient of correlation and multi variable regression model are used.
The results show that there is a direct and positive relation between earnings pattern (smoothing), earnings quality and pricing, while there is no relation between earnings pattern (increasing annual earnings and meet or exceed management forecasts) and earnings quality. Also, in this study we try to find patterns, effective for valuation of share prices.
The results of testing the first hypothesis show that there is a positive and direct relation between earnings pattern (smoothing) and pricings and the second hypothesis confirms that the relation between other earnings patterns and earnings quality is negative and indirect. Our final analysis examines whether the pricing effects associated with earnings patterns are a function of the quality of earnings. The results show that earnings quality level has no effect on the relationship between earnings patterns and stock prices
خلاصه ماشینی:
ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل اﻳﻦ ادﻋﺎ ﻣﻮﺳﻦ، داﻧﺰ وﮔﻮردن2 )7002( ﺑﺤﺚﻫﺎﻳﻲ را ﻣﺒﻨﻲ ﺑـﺮ اﻳـﻦ ﻛـﻪ اﻧﮕﻴـﺰه ﻣﺪﻳﺮان ﺑﺮای ﻫﻤﻮارﺳﺎزی ﺳﻮد ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﻳﻦ ﻓﺮض ﻗﺮار دارد، ﻛﻪ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ ﻣـﻲدﻫـﺪ ﺳﻮد و ﻧﺮخ رﺷﺪ آن دارای ﻧﻮﻋﻲ ﺛﺒﺎت ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ و ﻧﻪ اﻳﻦ ﻛﻪ ﺟﺮﻳﺎن ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑـﻪ ﻣﻴـﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺳـﻮد ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ و ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﺎت ﺳﻨﮕﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرﺗﻲ دﻗﻴﻖﺗﺮ، ﻣﻄﺮح ﻛﺮدﻧـﺪ و در اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ ﻓﺮاﻧﺴﻴﺲ از ﻫﻤﻮارﺳﺎزی ﺳﻮد، ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﻧﺴـﺒﺖ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﺳﻮد ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻗﺒﻞ از اﻗﻼم ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒﻪ ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﻞ داراﻳﻲ ﺑﻪ اﻧﺤـﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﺟﺮﻳﺎن وﺟﻪ ﻧﻘﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖﻫﺎی ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺗﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮد )راﺑﻄﻪ 1(: )1( ) smooth j ,t = σ ( NIBE j ,t ) σ (CFO j ,t 1.
ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺮﺳﻲ، ﺳﺎل ﺳﻮم، ﺷﻤﺎره ﻧﻬﻢ، ﺑﻬﺎر 0931 ﺑﺮای ﺳﺎلﻫﺎی tﺗﺎ 4 − ، tﻗﺎﺑﻞاﻧﺪازهﮔﻴﺮی اﺳﺖ ﻃﺒﻖ راﺑﻄﻪ 4، در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪاﻳﻢ1؛ )4( ) smooth j ,t = σ ( NIBE j ,t ) σ (CFO j ,t ﻛﻪ در آن: NIBE g ,t = ﺳﻮد ﺧﺎﻟﺺ ﻗﺒﻞ از اﻗﻼم ﻏﻴﺮ ﻣﺘﺮﻗﺒﻪ 2 CFO j ,t = ﮔﺮدش وﺟﻮه ﻧﻘﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت ﺟﺪول 1- ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ اول ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﺼﻴﺼﻪﻫﺎی ﺳﻮد و ﻗﻴﻤﺖﮔﺬاری ﺳﻬﺎم ﺳﻄﺢ ﺿﺮﻳﺐ 2R ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺗﺄﻳﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﺧﺼﻴﺼﻪﻫﺎی ﺳﻮد و 715.