چکیده:
ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﻲ اﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ، ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻣﻴﺰان ﺧﻄﺎی ﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ای اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ درﮔـﺰارش ﻫـﺎیﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﻜﺎر ﻣﻲ رود. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﻧﺠﺎم اﻳﻦ ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ و دﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺪف، اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﺮﺑﻮطﺑﻪ داراﻳﻲ ﻫﺎ، ﺑﺪﻫﻲ ﻫﺎ، ﻓﺮوش و ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻫﺎی ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺷـﺎﻣﻞ اﻫـﺮم ﻣـﺎﻟﻲ و ﻧـﺮخ ﺑـﺎزده داﺧﻠـﻲ ﺑـﻪ ﻋﻨـﻮانﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫﺎی ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺧﻄﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷـﺪه ﻣﻨـﺪرج درﮔـﺰارش ﻫـﺎیﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﻃﻲ دوره ﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﻲ 6831 ﺗﺎ 8831 ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﺘﻐﻴـﺮ واﺑﺴـﺘﻪ ﻣﻮرد آزﻣﻮن ﻗﺮارﮔﺮﻓﺖ.ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺑﺪﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ازآزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﻄﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻖ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳـﻮدﺷﺮﻛﺖﻫﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع داراﻳﻲ ﻫﺎ / ﻓﺮوش، ﻧـﺮخ ﺑـﺎزده داﺧﻠـﻲ، ﻧـﻮعﺻﻨﻌﺖ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪی ﻳﺎﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ( و ﻧـﻮع ﮔـﺰارش ﺗـﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ) ﺗـﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣـﺎﻟﻲ ﺟﻬـﺖ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪدرﮔﺮدش ﻳﺎ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ای( راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ دار ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ و ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﻄﺎی ﻣﻄﻠﻖﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ﺑﺎ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ اﻫﺮم ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ، ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﺣﻀـﻮر ﺷـﺮﻛﺖ ﻫـﺎ درﺑـﻮرس و اﻧـﺪازه ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﻮﻧﻪ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ داری ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻧﮕﺮدﻳﺪ.
The aim of this study is to assess the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting. To achieve mentioned objective, we have examined some information as performance evaluation measures including assets, debits, sales, financial leverage ratio, internal rate of returns and the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting from 1386 to 1388.
The correlation analysis with linear regression and test variance analysis have been used as the statistical method and the gathered data has been analyzed via the SPSS software. On top pf that, rationality of the regression equation and its coefficients were investigated respectively with F and T tests.
The results reveal a significant relation between the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting and financial position of the companies, internal rate of returns, the industry type, the reports type (financing for working capital or financing for development plans). In addition the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings was found independent to financial leverage rate, when the companies get into the Stock Exchange and size of the companies
خلاصه ماشینی:
ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺮﺳﻲ، ﺳﺎل ﺳﻮم، ﺷﻤﺎره دوازدﻫﻢ، زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 0931 4- ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ﻫﺎ و ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎت اﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ زﻳﺮ ﺑﻴﺎن ﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدد: 1- ﺑﻴﻦ اﻫﺮم ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ و ﺧﻄﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮد ﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺪرج در ﮔـﺰارشﻫـﺎی ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ، راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻢ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎ داری وﺟﻮد دارد.
8- ﺑﺤﺚ وﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﮔﻴﺮی ﺑﺎ آزﻣﻮن ﺟﺪاﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﺎت اول ﺗﺎ ﻫﻔﺘﻢ درﺳﻄﺢ اﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎن 59%، وﺟﻮد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻌﻨـﻲداری ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﻄﺎی ﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ﻣﻨﺪرج درﮔﺰارﺷﻬﺎی ﺗـﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑـﺎ اﻫﺮم ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ، ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع داراﻳﻲ ﻫﺎ/ ﻓﺮوش، ﺳـﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴـﺖ و ﺗﻮﻟﻴـﺪی ﻳـﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﻲ ﺑﻮدن ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ اﺛﺒﺎت ﻧﮕﺮدﻳﺪ ﻫﺮﭼﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺿـﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻌﻴـﻴﻦ ﺑﺮﺧـﻲ از آزﻣـﻮنﻫـﺎ ازﻣﻴﺰان ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﻫﻤﻴﺘﻲ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﺑﻮده ﻛﻪ ﻣﺒﻴﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﻴﺮ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ از ﻟﮕﺎرﻳﺘﻢ اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳـﻂ اﻳﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ، وﻟﻲ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﻲ داری ﺑﻴﻦ ﺧﻄـﺎی ﺳـﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘـﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨـﻲ ﺷـﺪه ﻣﻨﺪرج درﮔﺰارﺷﻬﺎی ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ و اﻫـﺪاف ﺷـﺮﻛﺖ ﻫـﺎ ازاﻧﺠـﺎم اﻓـﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ )از ﻧﻈﺮ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺮای ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ درﮔﺮدش ﻳﺎ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺮای اﺟﺮای ﻃﺮحﻫـﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪای( وﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزده داﺧﻠﻲ آﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ ، ﺑﻪ ﺑﻴﺎن دﻳﮕـﺮ ﺑـﺎ ﺗﻮﺟـﻪ ﺑـﻪ ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ آزﻣﻮن ﻫﺎی اول ﺗﺎﻫﻔﺘﻢ ﻣﻲ ﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ اﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎن 59% ادﻋـﺎﻧﻤﻮد ﻛـﻪ ﺧﻄـﺎی ﺳـﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ﻣﻨﺪرج درﮔﺰارش ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ای ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮای ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣـﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺮای ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ در ﮔﺮدش ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺗﻨﻈﻴﻢ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪه اﻧﺪ ﺑﻴﺶ از ﺧﻄﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺪرج در ﮔﺰارش ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺮای ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ای اﺳﺖ، ﺿﻤﻦ اﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺳﻮدﻫﺎی ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﺷﺪه ﻣﻨﺪرج در ﮔﺰارش ﻫﺎی ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻲ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ای ﻛـﻪ ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎزده داﺧﻠﻲ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮی ﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدﻧﺪ ﺑﺎ ﺧﻄﺎی ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮی ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ.