چکیده:
در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی در ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻫﺎی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪهدر ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف اﺻﻠﯽ از اﻧﺠﺎم اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ، ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪاﯾﻦ ﺳﺆال اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ آﯾﺎ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی را ﻣﻮرد ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻗﺮارداد. ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر، ﺗﻌﺪاد 79 ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﻃﯽ دوره زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 6831-0831 ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ ﺷـﺪه اﺳـﺖ. ﺟﻬـﺖ آزﻣـﻮنارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی، از رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه و ﺑﺮای آزﻣﻮن ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿـﺖﺳﻮد و ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳـﻮد و اﺣﺘﻤـﺎل اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳـﻮدﻧﻘﺪی، از رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﻻﺟﯿﺖ1 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه و ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ دو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ )ﻧﺰدﯾﮑﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺑـﻪﺟﺮﯾﺎنﻫﺎی ﻧﻘﺪی ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ و ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪی اﺧﺘﯿﺎری( اﻧﺪازهﮔﯿﺮی ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎنﻣﯽدﻫﺪ در ﺻﻮرت ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬـﺪی اﺧﺘﯿـﺎری، ارﺗﺒـﺎط ﻣﻌﮑـﻮس وﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺿﻌﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در ﺻﻮرﺗﯽ ﮐﻪﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﻧﺰدﯾﮑﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺑﻪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎنﻫﺎی ﻧﻘﺪی ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﯽ ﺳﻨﺠﯿﺪه ﺷﻮد، ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﺜﺒـﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨـﺎدارﻧﺴﺒﺘﺎ ﻗﻮی ﻣﯿﺎن ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و اﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺑﻪدﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه ﺣﺎﮐﯽ ازآن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﮐﺖ، ﺣﺎوی اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ در ﺧﺼﻮص اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺗﻐﯿﯿـﺮ در ﺳـﻮد ﻧﻘـﺪیاﺳﺖ و ﻣﺪﯾﺮان ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎی ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺑﻪ ﺟﺮﯾﺎنﻫﺎی ﻧﻘﺪی ﺷﺮﮐﺖ و ﻋﮑﺲاﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺎزار ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺧﺎص دارﻧﺪ و ﺑﻪ ﺛﺒﺎت ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮدی در رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاران ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪﻧﺪ.
This study, investigates the relation between the Quality of earnings and dividends policy in Tehran Securities Exchange. The main purpose of this study is to answer the question of "whether it is possible to evaluate dividends policy, with Quality of Earning". To do so, 97 firms were selected in the course of 2001-2007. for the first hypothesis, we used the Multi-variable regression and for the second and third hypotheses, we used the logit regression. Quality of earnings was measured through two substituted variables (convergence of earnings to cash flows from operations and the change in discretionary accruals).
The findings show that in the case of measuring Quality of Earning based on change in discretionary accruals, there exists weak negative relation between the quality of Earnings and the payment of more dividends.
Also, if the quality of Earnings is evaluated based on the approximation of earnings to cash flows from operation, there will be a strong and positive relation between the quality of earnings and the possibility of dividends increase. The results show that change in firm's Quality of Earnings includes some information contents about the probability of change in dividends and managers of corporations, have special attentions to cash flows and market reactions in their decisions about dividends policy and they believe to Functional Fixation in the investor's behavior
خلاصه ماشینی:
Farinha & Moreira ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﺷﻮاﻫﺪی از ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ..................
Caskey & Hanlon ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﺷﻮاﻫﺪی از ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ..................
5- ﻣﺪل و ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻣﺪلﻫﺎی ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺟﻬﺖ آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪﻫﺎی ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ، ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮح رواﺑـﻂ 1 ﺗﺎ 3 اﺳﺖ: )1( DIVPS t = a o + a 1 EQ - X t + a 2 EARN - D t -1 + a 3 STRUCT t + a 4 DIVPS + a 5 DUM + e t 1- t ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد و ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﺷﻮاﻫﺪی از ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ..................
ج-ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﻫﺮ ﺳﻬﻢ )(∆DPS اﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﯿﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﻮﻫﻮﻣﯽ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳـﺖ ﺑـﺪﯾﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﯿـﺐ ﮐـﻪ اﮔـﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات در ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی ﻫﺮ ﺳﻬﻢ دوره ﺟﺎری ﻣﺜﺒﺖ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ )اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ(، ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﯾﮏ و در ﻏﯿﺮ اﯾﻦﺻﻮرت، ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﺻﻔﺮ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻣﯽﺷﻮد.
ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪ اول، ﺣﺎﮐﯽ از ﻋﺪم وﺟـﻮد ارﺗﺒـﺎط ﺑـﯿﻦ ﮐﯿﻔﯿـﺖ ﺳـﻮد و ﭘﺮداﺧﺖ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﯽدﻫﺪ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺗـﺄﺛﯿﺮی ﺑـﺮ ﻣﺒـﺎﻟﻎ ﺳـﻮد ﻧﻘـﺪی ﻧﺪارد و ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎی ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان، در ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘـﺪی، ﺑـﻪ ﮐﯿﻔﯿـﺖ ﺳﻮد ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ ﻧﺪارﻧﺪ.
ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﻋﺘﻤﺎدی، ﺣﺴﯿﻦ و ﭘﺮی ﭼﺎﻻﮐﯽ، )4831(، " ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﯿـﺎن ﻋﻤﻠﮑـﺮد و ﺗﻘﺴـﯿﻢ ﺳﻮد ﻧﻘﺪی در ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎی ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس ﺗﻬﺮان ﻃﯽ ﺳـﺎلﻫـﺎی 1831-7731"، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻫﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری و ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺮﺳﯽ، ﺳﺎل دوازدﻫﻢ، ﺷﻤﺎره 93، ﺻﺺ 74-3.