چکیده:
he current study aims to explore the relationship between the two main macroeconomic variables, the export and economic growth, based on the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) in India for the period 1960 to 2010. The ELGH is an economic strategy used in the international trade policy of some developing countries for tracing the impact of trade on their economic growth. The ELGH is tested by the co-integration, error correction modeling and Granger causality approach. The results of the study show that there is evidence of unidirectional causality between export and economic growth for India. In fact, the economic growth causes export growth.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"2-Export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis Ricardo’s theory of competitive advantage believes that trade help to growth & development of countries but different strategies were applied that limited trade among countries.
Co integration and error correction model were applied for hypotheses testing and they find out an evidence to support ELGH and long run relationship between export growth and real GDP growth.
Syron & Walsh (1968) 50 1953-1963 Averages Cross-section GNP growth Export growth OLS Support for the hypothesis but the results are sensitive depending on the type of country under scrutiny LDCs or developed countries.
Figure 2: Export Growth in India Source: World Bank 7- Empirical Results The unit root test results are reported as follows: Table 1: Augmented Dickey-Fuller Stationary Test Results Variable Constant Critical Value Constant Critical Value No Trend 1% 5% Trend 1% 5% LGDP 1.
Following the detection of the co integrating relationship between real GDP and export in terms of the Johansen method, the error correction models (7) and (8) were set up to investigate short and long-run causality.
The results are reported as follows: Table 4: Granger Causality Test Dependent Causal Lag Orders Short-run causality t statistics of Variable Variable ΣΔLY ΣΔLX the coefficient ECTt-1 ΔLGDP ΔLEX n = 2 , m =2 - 2.
Conclusion This study researched the export-led growth hypothesis using the annual time series data running from 1960 to 2010 for India.
Following the detection of the co integrating relationship between export and real GDP in terms of Johansen approach, an error correction model was set up to investigate short and long-run causality."