چکیده:
In this article, demand equations for import of consumer,
intermediate and capital goods, for the period 1971(2) to 1999(1),
is estimated and analyzed, using the ARDL Pesaran & Shin
method. The results show that the behavior of the different
categories of imported goods in Iran is best explained by the
parallel market exchange rate, implying this rate is a closer
approximation for the opportunity cost of importers, despite their
access 10 foreign exchange at official or controlled rates
خلاصه ماشینی:
•• Abstract In this article, demand equations for import of consumer, intermediate and capital goods, for the period 1971 (2) to 1999( I), is estimated and analyzed, using the ARDL Pesaran & Shin method.
1- Introduction In this article, model of demand for import of consumer, intermediate and capital goods based on ARDL Pesaran & Shin method will be estimated and analyzed, with the quarterly data for the period 1971 :2-1999: I.
1- Introduction In this article, model of demand for imnort of consumer, intermediate and capital goods based on ARDL Pesaran & Shin method will be estimated and analyzed, with the quarterly data for the period 1971 :2-1999: 1.
Results of cointegeration tests of long run and short run demand functions for consumer goods (me), intermediate goods (mi) and capital goods (mk), based on the degree of integration of variables, are presented in tables 2,3 and 4 respectively.
The results of cointegeration tests given m section A of the tables reflect a long run relationship amongst the model's variables including imports ( consumer, intermediate and capital goods), real demand, real parallel market exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve ratios.
The parallel market exchange rate has a true sign and a high degree of statistical significance in the long run imported consumer goods demand equation in table 2.
The results of Pesaran & Shin cointegeration test confirm the hypothesis of a long run equilibrium relationship amongst intermediate good imports, real exchange rate in the parallel market, real demand and the ratio of external reserves.