چکیده:
This paper investigate Iranian tourism demand to Malaysia using the recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) ‘Bound test’ approach to cointegration for 2000:Q1 to 2013:Q4. The demand for tourism has been explained by macroeconomic variables, including income in Iran, tourism prices in Malaysia, tourism price substitute, travel cost and trade value between Iran and Malaysia. In addition, three dummy variables, namely September 11 terrorist attack in 2001, the outbreak of SARS in 2003 and increase exchange rate in 2011 are also included. The results show that a long-run relationship exists between variables. Iranian tourist arrivals to Malaysia are positively influenced by Lag dependent variable (word of mouth), tourism price adjusted by exchange rate, tourism price substitute and trade value. Iranian tourists seem to be highly sensitive to the price variable. Also, ever since the September 11 attack, Malaysia has become an oasis for tourists from the Middle East (Iran) as it is able to provide a safe haven for Muslim tourists as an alternative destination.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Iranian tourist arrivals to Malaysia are positively influencedby Lag dependent variable (word of mouth), tourism price adjusted byexchange rate, tourism price substitute and trade value.
Most of the existing empirical studies have used tourist arrivals/departures (Ouerfelli, 2008; Mervar, 2007; Dritsakis, 2004) and tourism receipts/expenditures as dependent variables (Hanly and Wade, 2007; Algieri, 2006; Mervare, 2002).
(2007) examined the long-run and short-run relationships between tourist arrivals to Malaysia and income, tourism price, travel cost, substitute tourism prices, and exchange rates from Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia during the period 1970-2004 using the bound test approach to cointegration within the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model.
3. Methodology and Data The model constructed is based on the classical economic theory which supposes that total Iranian tourist arrivals to Malaysia are determined by the lagged Iranian tourist arrivals to Malaysia, level of income, tourism price, travel cost, tourist substitute piece, trade value, and dummy variables.
The null hypothesis for no cointegration between the variables in Equation (2) is: (H0: λ1 = λ2 = λ3= λ4= λ5= λ6 = 0) (Ha: λ1 ≠ λ2 ≠ λ3 ≠ λ4 ≠ λ5 ≠ λ6 ≠ 0) If the computed F-statistics is higher than the upper bound critical value (CV), the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected, therefore there is a long run relationship between tourist arrivals, income, tourism price, travel cost, tourism price substitute, and trade value.
Iranian tourist arrivals to Malaysia are positively influenced by Lag dependent variable (word of mouth), tourism price adjusted by exchange rate, tourism price substitute and trade value.