چکیده:
طی چند دهه اخیر صنعت گردشگری به یکی از مهمترین منابع درآمدی کشورها تبدیل شده است . با توجه به تفاوت قابل ملاحظه کشورهای توسعه یافته با کشورهای درحال توسعه در جذب عایدات گردشگری بین المللی، اقدام به بررسی تاثیر شاخص نهاد حکمرانی کشور میزبان بر درآمد گردشگری کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه طی دوره ٢٠١٢-٢٠٠٠ نموده ایم . یافته های تحقیق بیانگر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار شاخص نهاد حکمرانی بر درآمد گردشگری کشورهای درحال توسعه مورد مطالعه دارد. این مطلب بیان کننده لزوم حرکت جدی کشورهای درحال توسعه نسبت به بهبود اجزای شاخص حکمرانی است . علاوه بر این یافته های تحقیق نشان میدهد توسعه زیرساخت فناوری ارتباطات و اطلاعات و سطح آموزش عمومی اثر مثبتی بر درآمد گردشگری بین المللی دارد. براساس نتایج ضریب تخمینی شاخص مخارج بهداشت بیمعناست . همچنین نتایج نشان میدهد علاوه بر افزایش درآمد سرانه واقعی و جمعیت کشورها و نرخ ارز، زیرساخت های حمل ونقل از اهمیت بسزایی در جذب گردشگر برخوردارند.
Over the last few decades, tourism has become one of the most important sources of income of the host country. Given the significant differences between developed countries and developing countries in attracting international tourism revenues, to investigate the effect governance index on the income tourism of the host country using data from 2000-2012 developing countries have been selected. The findings suggest that the effects of governance index in developing countries a significant and positive impact. This suggests the need for serious action by developing countries to improve governance index. In addition, the findings indicate that the development of ICT infrastructure and the level of public education have a positive effect on the income tourism of the host country. There is not a significant relationship between increasing the health expenditure by increasing income tourism in developing countries. The results show that the addition of real per capita income and population and exchange rates, transport infrastructure are very important in attracting tourists. So that the air transports infrastructure development and income tourism in developing countries a positive and significant relationship exists.
Introduction
Despite the progress some developing countries, there is still deep gap in the benefit from the proceeds of international tourists between developed countries with developing countries considering having a capacity of exceptional natural, cultural, historical and archaeological. Reviews the determinants of earn more from tourism channels is essential because different incentive tourism and cannot be easily identified types of variables affecting it. The dominant view in most of the researches conducted background factors affecting the income from tourism activities has been based solely on economic factors and less on social and institutional factors were taken into consideration. Issue institutions in two decades recent simultaneous by expanding critical surge policy package of neoclassical in the area international economics by economists known the new institutionalists, has been proposed. Institutionalists believe that institutional factors, especially the institutional governance index effective on economic development and attracting tourists countries.
Materials And Methods
In this section inspired by the theoretical and empirical studies Panyik (2015), Nunkoo and et al (2013), Massidda and Etzo (2012), Cho (2010), Seetanah and et al (2010), Aslan et al. (2009) and Khadaroo and Seetanah (2007), concerning the econometric models used in this study compiled the index of institutional governance of the host country and other determinants to explore about the factors affecting tourism income over the period 2000- 2012, will be discussed. The variables used in the econometric model were as follows: So that represents in my country its tourism income. Following the Panyik (2015), Massidda and Etzo (2012), Cho (2010), Aslan et al. (2009), Khadaroo and Seetanah (2007), Naude and Saayman (2005) and in order to maintain expansion of the tourism industry index the income international tourists (RECP) is considered as the dependent variable.
Tourism affected by natural shocks, war, changes in policies, taste, advertising, expectations, political instability, terrorism and other special events are placed. Due to the lack of availability of data, usually the above as the disturbing element or the error ( ) is entered in the model.
Due to the factors mentioned above, it can be expressed:
Based on the relationship 2 and in accordance with theoretical and experimental studies are expected to increase the per capita income in the countries of origin, the real exchange rate, population growth, improved transport infrastructure, improving ICT infrastructure, improve the education level of the population, especially the tourism field staff improving indicators hygienic and improving institutional governance in the country of destination have a positive impact on tourism revenues in the host country. Considering that the econometric equation logarithmically, so it is considered if the equation number one on explicit and logarithmic have expressed. We have the following equation:
According to equation (3), shows the specific characteristics of each country in the examined samples. In simple terms, the coefficients of dummy variables sections for countries that if they ignore the error terms and wastes ( ) will show itself. In order to test the hypothesis and investigate the effect of governance indicators host country on international tourism income of 36 developing countries selected, are used eviews software and econometric techniques data panel the sections and time periods combined together. It is worth mentioning for providing the required data in this study used documentary information Statistical Center of Iran, the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the World Tourism Organization and statistical databases including the information documented global development indices (WDI) and UNWTO and www.govindicatians.org.
Discussion and
Results
According to the results estimations the estimated coefficients variable the governance in developing countries is positive and significant. So could be said with regard to the significant impact of institutional of governance variable on tourism revenue in developing countries, a serious move to improve of governance indexes in decreasing gaps development existing especially in the field of tourism is of valuable help. In other words improvement each of the indexes of freedom and transparency, political stability, effectiveness of law, the rule of Law, fighting corruption and the independence of the judiciary apparatus in line with the the better performance of institutions and apparatus related to attract tourists international directly and indirectly affect. The estimated coefficients Voice and accountability indicator is positive and significant. In relation to this indicator must be acknowledged, lawful freedom and the free dissemination of information that are examples of voice and accountability, are cause strengthening of public awareness and transparency economic and social. On the other hand, institutions of civil society like trade associations, the unions, parties and free and healthful elections to people of a society empowers to choose public, and redundant control. It is natural in such circumstances has enjoyed individuals of appropriate social rights and an incentive to travel to these countries.
The results also indicate positive and significant relationship variable control of corruption on tourism revenue. In other words whatever public and governmental abuse of power and the service is not personal and private interests as the motivation of presence international tourists will be provided. Also indicators of effectiveness and efficiency of government positive impact on the tourism revenue is meaningless. As was noted earlier order the effectiveness of government, its ability to formulation and implementation of sound policies and necessary it to have an efficient administrative apparatus. An efficient administrative apparatus have the power and skill to manage the affairs the country and be able to prevent the occurrence of dramatic changes in politics, political pressures have not been affected and have be transparent mechanisms to attract international tourists.
Conclusions
According opinion of many domestic and foreign scholars is one of the components of good governance to attract foreign tourists. The findings of this study also positive effect improve the quality of governance in attracting foreign tourists approved. Total index governance simple average of six governance indicators provided by the World Bank, a significant and positive impact on the income from foreign tourists.
خلاصه ماشینی:
1 Seetanah 2 Song 3 Li 4 Aslan شاه آبادی و سیاح (١٣٩٠) به بررسی اثر متغیرهای درآمد سرانه واقعی، نرخ تورم ، نرخ ارز موثر واقعی، حجم سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، زیرساخت حمل ونقل بر میزان جذب گردشگر کشورهای اسلامی عضو D٨ طی دوره ٢٠٠٠-٢٠٠٨ پرداخته اند.
مطالعه حاضر پژوهش بین کشوری است ، از این رو به منظور بررسی اثر شاخص نهادی حکمرانی کشور میزبان بر درآمد گردشگری بین المللی ٣٦ کشور برگزیده درحال توسعه از نرم افزار Eviews و تکنیک های اقتصادسنجی پانل دیتا که مقاطع و دوره های زمانی را با همدیگر ترکیب میکند، بهره گرفته ایم .
جدول (٢) نتایج حاصل از آزمون ریشه واحد متغیرهای مورد مطالعه کشورهای منتخب درحال توسعه آزمون دیکی فولر تعمیم یافته آزمون ایم ، پسران و شین متغیرها احتمال آماره احتمال آماره 0/000 4/827/ 0/0000 -2/651 I(0) INFRA 0/000 2/145 0/000 -3/237 I(0) EGDU 0/000 5/310 0/000 -3/278 I(0) HEAL 0/000 10/634 0/000 -5/179 I(0) ICT 0/000 9/667 0/0002 -2/604 I(0) REX 0/000 8/123 0/0002 -2/721 I(0) POP 0/000 7/591 0/0001 -4/098 I(0) GDP 0/000 10/078 0/0002 -3/592 I(0) GOV منبع : محاسبات تحقیق حاضر پس از بررسی ایستایی اولین گام در برآورد مدل های پنل دیتا تعیین نمودن قیود وارد شده بر مدل اقتصادسنجی است .
از این رو تقاضای گردشگری بین المللی کاهش مییابد که میتوان علت بیمعنی بودن این متغیر را با ثبات بودن آن طی دوره مورد مطالعه برای کشورهای درحال توسعه منتخب بیان نمود که این نتایج با نتایج مطالعات شاه آبادی و سیاح (١٣٩٢ و ١٣٩٠) مبنی بر منفی بودن ضریب نرخ ارز همسو است نتیجه گیری و پیشنهادات بر اساس نظر بسیاری از محققان داخلی و خارجی حکمرانی خوب یکی از مولفه های اساسی جذب گردشگران خارجی است .