چکیده:
In this paper we test two versions of convergence hypothesis namely deterministic or conditional convergence and stochastic or catching up hypothesis using Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) stationary test. The results show Latin and South American countries (LSA) catching up process toward the USA failed in 1980s and somewhat in 1990s. But in 2000s most of them could lie in convergence path. Dispersion of break dates show that structural breaks in LSA convergence were affected by trade policies، terms of trade shocks and also war. For example، terms of trade shocks due to volatility of primary goods prices such as sugar، copper، cotton، petroleum oil، coffee، bauxite، aluminum، and rice affected the convergence process in LSA countries.
خلاصه ماشینی:
e. Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica and Dependencies, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, and Venezuela) and the USA as base country, over the 1969 to 2011 period.
If we look at the dynamics of the per capita real GDP datasets over the past four decades 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s and 2000’s, indicating that St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Bolivia had lowest per capita real GDP and Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, St Kitts and Nevis, Mexico, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, and Antigua and Barbuda had highest per capita real GDP over most of decades among Latin and South American countries.
e. Honduras and Paraguay) experienced 6 breaks, 6 countries (namely Belize, Brazil, Dominica, Haiti, Trinidad,Tobago, & Venezuela) experience 5 breaks, 12 countries ( namely Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Jamaica and Dependencies, Nicaragua, St Kitts and Nevis, and Uruguay) experience 4 breaks, 8 countries (namely Barbados, Cuba, Guatemala, Guyana, Mexico, Peru, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Suriname) experienced 3 breaks, and 4 countries (namely Costa Rica, Grenada, Panama, and St Lucia) experienced 2 breaks in the intercept.