چکیده:
This paper، I have focused on the tax side of the fiscal policy to investigate the past and future behavior of fiscal sustainability in Iran. To do so، I have employed two different forward-looking and backward-looking approaches. First، the backward-looking approach is the fiscal policy rule proposed by Daving & Leeper (2011). Precisely، this rule determines that whether the fiscal policy is active (unsustainable) or passive (sustainable). To estimate the fiscal policy rule، I have exploited Markov switching model (MSM) which examines the tax rate response to debt dynamics under multiple regimes. Second، the forward-looking approach is the modified Blanchard’s tax gap indicator (1990) for an oil-producing country. In fact، this indicator predicts the amount of tax adjustment required to stabilize the future amount of government’s debt back to its value in a particular base year. I have used time series data over the period spanning from 1993(Q1) to 2013(Q4).
خلاصه ماشینی:
To estimate the fiscal policy rule, I have exploited Markov switching model (MSM) which examines the tax rate response to debt dynamics under multiple regimes.
By pre-multiplying the both side of equation (3) by exp-(r-θ)n (which means that both side of the equation is discounted to time zero), we have: n ∫0 ds exp-(r-θ)sds=-b0+bnexp-(r-θ)n ` (4) To calculate the tax gap indicator, let t* be the constant tax rate such that, given forecasts of government spending under current policy rules, the ratio of debt to GDP at time n is equal to the ratio at time zero.
In other words, based on equation (11), a fiscal policy is sustainable in time of n-years if the present discounted value of the ratio of primary surpluses to GDP plus the ratio of oil revenues to GDP in budget financing is greater than or equal to difference between the current level of debt-to-GDP ratio and the desired discounted debt-to-/GDP ratio n periods ahead.
The index of fiscal sustainability is given (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) is the sustainable/constant tax rate that achieves an unchanged debt-to GDP ratio in future, given the forecasts of government spending minus the oil revenue’s share in government budget financing.
In tax gap calculations, one must determine the current (base) year of debt and tax to GDP ratio, what economic growth and interest rate is likely to look like, what the evolution of government expenditure is likely to be and what is likely to happen with oil revenues.