چکیده:
The main goal of the present paper is to analyze the effects of currency collapses (a large devaluation of country’s nominal exchange rate) on real gross domestic products of six Asian countries (Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey). A yearly data is collected from the WDI of the World Bank over the period 1980-2011. The econometric model includes the real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and dummy variable (as a proxy variable for the currency collapse devaluation). The currency collapse devaluation is calculated using a criterion similar to M. Bussiere et al. (Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.31, 2012: 680-708). Applying a panel econometric method, the estimated results show that both the inflation rate and currency collapses affect the real GDP growth rate negatively. The implication of finding is that the persistence of the currency crash matters for selected Asian countries.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Chronicle of Currency Collapses and the Effects on Output: Evidence from Six Asian Countries1 Tavakoli, Akbar Kheradmand, Alireza Received: 7/22/2013 Approved: 1/27/2014 1 Abstract The main goal of the present paper is to analyze the effects of currency collapses (a large devaluation of country’s nominal exchange rate) on real gross domestic products of six Asian countries (Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, and Turkey).
Christopoulos (2004) considers panel data of 11 Asian countries (including South Korea); the estimated model provided empirical support for contractionary devaluation in the long-run.
Table 1: Summary of Some Empirical Results of Exchange Rate Devaluation Effect on Economic Growth Long run Short run Countries Period Neutral Contractionary 12cdoeuvnetlroiepsing 1965-80 Edwards (1986) Statistically insignificant --- 67 countries 1973-1986 Khan (1988) Neutral Contractionary, 12cdoeuvnetlroiepsing 1965-84 Edwards (1989) Expansionary for exporters of agricultural products Contractionary, for exporters of manufactures 48 developing countries 1982- 1987 Nunnenkamp (&19S9c0h)weickert Contractionary?
The results further confirm the V shape effect of currency devaluation on economic growth of groups (1) and (2) countries observed by Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1998) regarding to other developing economies.
6. Conclusion Applying two-way fixed effects panel econometric model over the period 1980-2011 aiming to find the effects of currency collapses in six Asian economies, the estimation shows the following results: 1- The coefficient of inflation rate, as a control policy variable, shows higher inflation decreases in real GDP growth rate in whole countries; however, its effect is statistically significant on Indonesian, Malaysian, and South Korean economies."