چکیده:
This article is an empirical attempt to explore the relationship between sanctions (financial and non-financial), oil price shocks and Iran-Russian bilateral trade flows over the period 1991–2014. In contrast to earlier studies in which a gravity model has been estimated through a panel data approach, in this paper the authors apply a gravity model for only two countries and do the estimations using the vector error correction approach. The overall estimation results indicate that financial sanctions, non-financial sanctions and oil price shocks negatively impact the Iran-Russian trade. Furthermore, financial sanctions had the greatest negative impact on Iran-Russian trade rather than non-financial sanctions and sharp oil price shocks.
خلاصه ماشینی:
An Estimation Of The Impact of Economic Sanctions And Oil Price Shocks On Iran-Russian trade: Evidence from a Gravity- VEC approach Ehsan Rasoulinezhad*1, Liudmila Popova2 Received: 2016, April 5 Accepted: 2017, January 9 Abstract his article is an empirical attempt to explore the relationship betweensanctions (financial and non-financial), oil price shocks and Iran- Russian bilateral trade flows over the period 1991–2014.
In the case of bilateral trade between Iran and Russia, one major factor that influences the trade flow is global oil price shock (Maui & Uleukaev, 2015; Idrisov et al.
Conversely, with a negative jump in oil prices, there is inevitable collapse in foreign exchange earnings leading to a critical shortage of foreign currency, which eventually causes trade deficit in oil-exporting countries (Malikov, 2016; Rati & Vespignani, 2015; Oxenstierna, 2015; Essers, 2013).
The findings represented the negative sign of ECO and positive signs of ASEAN, BA1 and SAARC RTAs. Chen & Novy (2011) applied a gravity model to find out trade integration across manufacturing industries in European Union countries.
Taghavi & Hosein Tash (2011) analyzed the international trade patterns of Iran with 12 oil exporting countries by using a gravity model.
Beckmann & Fidrmuc (2012) examined the effects of oil price shock as a dummy variable on the CMEA (Council for Mutual Economic Assistance) trade during 1950-1990 by applying a gravity model.
6. Conclusion and Policy Implications This study mainly investigates the impacts of sanctions, as well as oil price shocks on Iran-Russia trade through the estimation of a gravity model for the quarterly data over the period 1991-2014.