چکیده:
this study examines the impact of non-oil export demand on economic performance in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1975 and 2013. The study tests for the unit root and co-integration to determine the time series properties of our variables before using Vector Error Correction (VEC) model for both short- and long- run estimates and possible policy inferences. The results show that non-oil export has a positive impact on economic growth suggesting that policies formulated towards improving the export of non-oil commodities in Nigeria will directly boost output growth of other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, services etc. The findings also reveal a uni-causal link from export to growth in Nigeria, thereby, supporting the export-led growth hypothesis. The policy implication of this finding is that failure on the part of policy makers to increase non-oil exports will directly hurt the economy of Nigeria. This is also consistent with the findings in the short-run. It was also found that capital and labor have direct and significant impact on output growth.
خلاصه ماشینی:
Abogan, Akinola and Baruwa (2014) employed the Johansen Cointegration test, the Error Correction Mechanism and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques to investigate the impact of non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2010.
Igwe, Edeh and Ukpere (2015) adopted the Export-Led Hypothesis and employed the Johansen Cointegration, Vector Error Correction model Granger Causality test to examine the impact of non-oil export on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2012.
3) Where; GDP = gross domestic product, K = stock of capital, L = stock of labor, NX = non-oil export, GEX = government expenditure, ER = exchange rate, 015 = parameters, t = time and = error term.
This enables to determine causal relationship among non-oil exports, other macroeconomic indicators (capital, labor, government expenditure and exchange rate), and economic growth proxy as growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP).
This indicates that there exist two cointegrating vector equations among the considered variables in the order, gross domestic product (GDP), capital (K), labor force (L), non-oil export (NX), government expenditure (GEX) and exchange rate (ER).
373493 [see] results appendix for details * denotes significance at 1%; ** denotes significance at 5% Source: Authors’ Computation (2017) The long-run estimates in Table 4 reveals that capital (K), labor (L) and non-oil export (NX) have positive relationship with economic growth in Nigeria, and all these effects follow theoretical expectation.
The co-integration result using the Johansen test indicated a long-run relationship between non-oil export and economic growth in Nigeria.