چکیده:
هدف پژوهش حاضرآزمون تاثیر مدیریت سرمایه در گردش بر سودآوری در ادوار مختلف تجاری (رونق و رکود) است. جهت آزمون رابطه فوق از روش رگرسیون داده¬های تابلویی استفاده میگردد. برای این منظور، نمونه ای مشتمل بر ۲۵۱ شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال های ۱۳۸۰ تا ۱۳۹۲ مورد بررسی قرار می¬گیرد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که مادامی که از بازده دارایی¬ها به عنوان سنجه سودآوری استفاده گردد، رابطه سودآوری با دوره پرداخت تعهدات و دوره وصول مطالبات در دوران رونق، معکوس است و با دوره تبدیل وجه نقد و متوسط گردش موجودی کالا دارای رابطه مثبت و معنادار می¬باشد. عکس این روابط در دوران رکود برقرار است. حال آن¬که میان سود ناخالص عملیاتی (معیار دوم سودآوری) با دوره تبدیل وجه نقد، متوسط گردش موجودی کالا و دوره پرداخت تعهدات به تفکیک دوره رونق و رکود رابطه معناداری مشاهده نگردید. سود ناخالص عملیاتی با دوره وصول مطالبات در شرایط رونق دارای رابطه منفی است و عکس رابطه مذکور در شرایط رکود برقرار است. لذا نتایج حاصل از پژوهش تحت تاثیر سنجه سودآوری است. یافتههای حاصل از این پژوهش در نمونه متغیر و ثابت همواره برقرار است.
IntroductionThis study is aimed to investigate the effect of working capital management on profitability during business cycles (boom and bust). If capital structure and long-term investment decisions are foundation of firm، proper management of working capital likes blood in the firms’ veins provides financial health and continuity possibility. One of the most important functions of every organization is the efficient management of working capital. Obviously، the uncertainty associated with macro-economic factors plays an important role in changing the product demand and firms financing. So that Kvrazyk & Levi (2003) believe firms determine the timing for debt issuing based on economic conditions. The main source of working capital financing، is retained earnings so it can be argued that business cycles affect the firm financing through its impact on economic growth، product demand and subsequently sales. For example، when sales of firm decline its profit is reduced and an important source of working capital financing is affected. In this situation، management will have to use external funds that are expensive. Regardless of the kind of industry in which the firm operates، the macroeconomic conditions affect all industries. For example، the recession declines the general level of demand، decreases sales and liquidity and imposes increasingly pressures on firms business. Lending limitations of financial institutions have led to cash becomes the scarce resource. Hence، the importance of working capital management is more than ever before. Therefore، this study investigated the effects of working capital management on profitability in different business cycles. In this study، for the first time، the effects of working capital and the profitability are examined taking into account the business cycles in both fixed and variable sample. Fixed sample includes companies that listed in the stock exchange continuously for the whole sample period. However variable sample includes companies that also have been listed during the research period (every year new companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange). This study is aimed to investigate the relationship between business cycles، working capital management and profitability.
The study hypothesis includes:
Hypothesis 1: There is a relationship between profitability and cash conversion cycle (separated by boom and bust).
Hypothesis 2: There is a relationship between profitability and commitment payment period (separated by boom and bust).
Hypothesis 3: There is a relationship between profitability and average collection period (separated by boom and bust).
Hypothesis 4: There is a relationship between profitability and average inventory turnover period (separated by boom and bust).
MethodologyThe effect of working capital management on the profitability during business cycles is examined by panel data regression using annual data. The diagnosis tests to determine the model (panel or pool regression) including F Limer and Hausman tests are fitted. It should be mentioned that profitability is calculated through two measures including return on assets (ROA) and gross operating profit. To evaluate the effect of business cycles on the relationship between working capital management and profitability، we must first identify business cycles. For this purpose the filter Hodrick –Perescot is used. The study consisted of both fixed and variable samples with 143 and 251 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for 2001 to 2013 respectively.
Results & DiscussionThe results of the two fixed and variable samples are shown in the below table.
Business cycles Variable Expected Sign ROA (dependent variable) GOI (dependent variable)
Example(251) Example(143) Example(251) Example(143)
Boom Ccc1 - Negative and insignificant positive and insignificant Negative and insignificant positive and insignificant
Ccc*D1 + positive and significant positive and insignificant positive and insignificant Negative and insignificant
Bust Ccc - positive and insignificant positive and insignificant positive and insignificant Negative and insignificant
Ccc*D2 - negative and significant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant positive and insignificant
Boom AP + negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant
AP*D1 - negative and significant negative and significant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant
Bust AP + negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant Negative and insignificant
AP*D2 + positive and significant positive and significant positive and insignificant positive and insignificant
Boom AR - negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant
AR*D1 + negative and significant Negative and insignificant negative and significant Negative and insignificant
Bust AR - negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant negative and significant
AR*D2 - positive and significant positive and insignificant positive and significant positive and insignificant
Boom INV - negative and significant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant
INV*D1 + positive and significant positive and insignificant positive and insignificant positive and insignificant
Bust INV - positive and insignificant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant
INV*D2 - negative and significant Negative and insignificant Negative and insignificant positive and insignificant
CCC: Cash Conversion Cycle، AP: Accounts Payable، AR: Accounts Receivable، INV: Inventory Conversion Period
As it can be seen there is a significant negative relationship between the profitability and collection period and this finding is supported by the expectations. In other words، this result has not been changed despite of balanced and unbalanced sample. There is negative relation between collection period and profitability during the boom that is reversed during the recession relative to the boom. The results indicated significant negative relationship between the profitability and commitment payment period. According to the results، as long as the economic downturn prevails، the commitment period has a positive relationship with profitability while the mentioned relationship is reversed in the boom period. Sensitivity analysis indicates that no change in the findings has been achieved with balanced sample.
Conclusions & SuggestionsThe results indicate that as long as the return on assets (ROA) is used as a profitability measure، the relationship between profitability with the commitment payment period and the collection period is negative during the boom and there is a positive significant relationship between profitability and the cash conversion period and average inventory turnover. These relationships are reverse in recession. While if the gross operating earnings is used as second measure of profitability، it cannot find any significant relationship between profitability with the cash conversion period، average inventory turnover and commitment payment period neither during boom nor bust. There is negative (positive) significant relationship between gross operating profit and the average collection period in boom (recession). So، the results of this research are affected by the profitability measures. The results of the study are always true in variable and constant samples. Findings sensitivity analysis shows that the main results of this research are not influenced by variable sample and is established also for constant sample.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"لازم به ذکر است سودآوری از طریق دو معیار بازده داراییها و سود خالص عملیاتی محاسبه میگردد: (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) که WC: سرمایه در گردش (از چهار شاخص دوره تبدیل وجه نقـد، دوره وصـول مطالبـات، دوره پرداخت تعهدات و دوره متوسط گردش موجودی کالا برای اندازهگیری سرمایه در گـردش استفاده میشود)، CR: نسبت جاری، DEBT: نسبت بدهی، SALES: اندازه شـرکت ، D١: دوران رونق و D٢: دوران رکود است .
جدول ٤- نتایج آزمون مانایی متغیرها آماره لوین ، لین و چو احتمال نتیجه سود خالص عملیاتی -16/7663 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد بازده داراییها -12/6320 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد چرخه تبدیل وجه نقد -12/9233 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد نسبت جاری -4/63184 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد نسبت بدهی -9/34073 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد اندازه شرکت -5/54110 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد دوره وصول مطالبات -6/32869 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد دوره پرداخت تعهدات -12/0191 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد متوسط دوره گردش موجودی کالا -153/467 0/00 عدم وجود ریشه واحد مأخذ: یافته های پژوهش جدول٥- نتایج آزمون F لیمر (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) مأخذ: یافته های پژوهش ________________________________________________________________ ١- درجه آزادی آماره F میباشد.
جدول٩- نتایج آزمون تحلیل حساسیت (رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) مأخذ یافته های پژوهش همانگونه که مشاهده میگردد دوره وصول مطالبات دارای رابطه منفی و معنادار با سودآوری است و این یافته در تأیید نتیجه مورد انتظار میباشد؛ به عبارت دیگر، این نتیجه با وجـود نمونـه ای متوازن و غیرمتوازن دستخوش تغییر نگردیده است .
The relationship between working capital management and profitability in the company, listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, Journal of financial engineering and management of securities; (2): 117-138 (In Persian)."