چکیده:
The aim of this article is to study the method of macroeconomic analysis in developing countries which accentuate on the programs advocated by the IMF and the World Bank from the model known as the "Integrated Model IMF-World Bank". This research makes a comprehensive evaluation of the applicability of this model to analyze the performance of adjustment programs in the case of six countries in the Mediterranean and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, namely, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey during the period 1974-2006. We analyze also the effects of different policies (domestic credit, government spending, tax proceeds and exchange rate), on
three objectives: growth, balance of payment equilibrium and inflation. Regarding to our results, the model gives us good economic comparison among these countries. Turkey is the closet to the anticipation of the model. For all of the countries there is a downward trend in domestic prices. Thus balance of payments is considered as the priority and inflation remains the second goal of the model. Therefore the model is not capable of giving a complete package of policy for no country.
خلاصه ماشینی:
This research makes a comprehensive evaluation of the applicability of this model to analyze the performance of adjustment programs in the case of six countries in the Mediterranean and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, namely, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey during the period 1974-2006.
We analyze also the effects of different policies (domestic credit, government spending, tax proceeds and exchange rate), on three objectives: growth, balance of payment equilibrium and inflation.
This paper studies the feasibility of the "Integrated IMF-World Bank model" for six Mediterranean and MENA developing countries, Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey.
We consider this model to analyze and evaluate adjustment and growth program for these developing countries (Pastor, 1987) In Algeria, total debt has become twice from 1985 to 1988 and in 1990 they started the negotiations with IMF in order to rescheduling 1 See Khan and Montiel (1981), Aghevli and Sassanpour (1982), Otani and Sassanpour.
Section 4 analyzes the effects of different economic policies, like changes in domestic credit, in government spending and/or tax proceeds and exchange rate, on growth, inflation and balance of payments equilibrium.
Conclusion The purpose of this article was first to estimate the adequacy of the Integrated IMF and World Bank model for six developing countries and then by using the calibrated model for each country, to simulate the impact of the implementation of various macro-economic policies (fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies) on the key macroeconomic variables such as output, growth and inflation [see Barro and Lee (2002), Bagci and Perraudiu (1995) and Conway (1994)].