چکیده:
this paper examined whether monetary policy is acyclical, procyclical or countercyclical and the implications of the interaction of such cyclicality with industrial output on real economic growth in Nigeria. After determining the time series properties of the variables and based on conventional cyclicality measures, the fully modified ordinary least square method was used to examine the impact of monetary policy cyclicality and industry output on economic growth. Granger Causality test was used to examine the causal relationship between the monetary cyclicality and output growth. The results showed that monetary policy is countercyclical on economic growth in Nigeria. Monetary policy cyclicality had significant impact on economic growth and the causality test also indicated that monetary policy has a direct effect and indirect effect through industrial output growth on real economic growth in Nigeria. The findings are consistent with similar studies in other countries, and the policy implication of the results is that despite the recent doubt, monetary policy is still a potent stabilization policy that can be used to stimulate industrial-output growth and counter the recent downturn in real economic activities in Nigeria.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"After determining the time series properties of the variables and based on conventional cyclicality measures, the fully modified ordinary least square method was used to examine the impact of monetary policy cyclicality and industry output on economic growth.
Thus, this paper examined the monetary policy cyclicality, industry output and economic growth interactions in Nigeria.
Second, the impact of the interaction between monetary policy cyclicality and industry output on economic growth in Nigeria are examined.
First, the findings of this study reveal that the monetary policy cyclicality in Nigeria is countercyclical and has a negative impact on economic growth; the monetary authority responds to a recession by increasing the money supply and reducing nominal interest rate and respond to boom by reducing the money supply and increasing interest rate.
Further, the impact of the interaction between monetary policy cyclicality & industry output on economic growth is negatively significant.
While as at the time of writing this paper, we hardly find Nigeria literature that examined the relationship between monetary policy cyclicality (the movement of monetary policy along with the business cycle) and economic growth but we did find foreign literature like Duncan (2013), Bech et al.
In furtherance of the regression estimate of the study, the directional causal effects among monetary policy cyclicality, industry output and economic growth in Nigeria were estimated using equation 9.
The implication of the causality test among the variables is that monetary policy cyclicality, the interaction between monetary policy cyclicality & industry output are potent to cause changes in economic growth in Nigeria."