چکیده:
Fundamental and technical analyses are two common methods for predicting the future behavior of the stock. Fundamental analysis focuses on the economic forces of supply and demand which cause stock prices change. On the other hand, technical analysis examines historical data relating to changes in the price and trading volume by using graphs and indicators as a primary tool to predict future price movements.
In this paper a model has been provided for selecting the right portfolio in stock exchange. Financial industries ranking and companies ranking have been applied for the selection of the right stock in this model. These rankings have been done through the PROMETHEE decision making method. Technical Analysis has been done for determining the right time to buy and to sell the superior stocks. A survey has been done for determining the effective criteria over industry and company evaluation. The developed model has been applied in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) as a real case and a real problem has been solved.
It is concluded that by using both Fundamental and Technical Analysis, an investor can get higher return on stocks instead of using just one individual analysis. In other words, while fundamental analysis distinguishes which stocks to buy, technical Analysis shows when to buy the superior stocks. Finally, some important and most commonly used indicators have been extracted. These indicators can be used by investors to consistently and correctly predict the future stocks prices.
JEL Classification: C4, E5, G2
خلاصه ماشینی:
On the other hand, technical analysis examines historical data relating to changes in the price and trading volume by using graphs and indicators as a primary tool to predict future price movements (Rahmani et al.
Then, by using stock experts' opinions on the degree of the importance of each indicator, use of paired comparisons and PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision-making methods we will proceed to financial industries ranking and from there to ranking of active companies in top known industries.
3. Research Method The aim of this paper is to introduce an algorithm for stock portfolio selection through the financial industries ranking, stock ranking of top companies and also determining the best time of trade in the Tehran stock exchange.
3. 1 Industries and Companies Ranking (Fundamental Analysis) The required data in PROMETHEE method are: Effective criteria in evaluation: these criteria are the foundation of ranking and have been extracted through the study of literature and surveying decision-making process in one of the Tehran investment and stock exchange companies.
3 Ranking of Banking Companies After calculating the weights of the criteria in evaluating banks, they are ranked using indicators information which has been extracted from Rah- Avard- Novin software.
Conclusion In this paper, the ranking of industries and companies approach through PROMETHEE decision making method is used to select stocks.
b) Using PROMETHEE decision making method and the possibility of sensitivity analysis of problem results can improve the structure of industries and companies evaluation.