چکیده:
در این تحقیق با استفاده از سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)، تصاویر ماهوارهای، داده های ایستگاه سینوپتیک، تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و روش تلفیق لایهها (WLC) پتانسیل سیلخیزی حوضه آبریز قرهسو مدلسازی شده است. نقشه نهایی خطر سیلخیزی بر پایه ترکیبی از عوامل و عناصر اقلیمی و فیزیکی یعنی 10 عامل پوشش گیاهی، ارتفاع، مسیل سیلابی، زمینشناسی، کاربری اراضی، بارش، فاصله از رودخانه، شیب، خاک و تراکم زهکشی تهیه شد. وزن هر یک از معیارها با روش تحلیل سلسله مراتبی (AHP) و جهت مدلسازی فضایی و تلفیق لایهها برای تهیه نقشه پتانسیل سیلخیزی از روش ترکیب خطی وزن-دار (WLC) استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از پهنهبندی ریسک سیلخیزی نشان داد که طبقه 4 به عنوان ردهای با خطر زیاد با 7/21 درصد و طبقه 5 نیز با پتانسیل سیل-خیزی خیلی زیاد با 4/8 درصد، بیشتر در مناطق کوهستانی شمال و مرکز منطقه واقع هستند. که در مجموع حدود 31 درصد از محدوده حوضه آبریز را پهنههای سیل خیز خطر پذیر زیاد تا خیلی زیاد در بر گرفته است و به دلیل اینکه بیشترین نقش را در تولید رواناب دارند، باید از نظر مدیریت آبخیزداری مورد توجه ویژه باشند. طبقات یک تا سه با پتانسیل سیلخیزی کم تا متوسط با قرارگیری در مناطق کم ارتفاع، دامنه و دشتهای مرکز، جنوب و غرب حوضه قرار گرفتهاند و بیش از 69 درصد از منطقه را در بر گرفتهاند.
Floods are one of the biggest global problems, so with the increasing intensity and frequency of floods, global concerns about increased mortality and economic losses due to floods have increased. In this research, using geographic information system (GIS), satellite images, synoptic station data, hierarchical analysis (AHP), and layer integration (WLC) method, flooding potential of Qarah_su catchment modeling Has been. The final flood risk map was prepared based on a combination of climatic and physical factors and elements, i.e., ten factors of vegetation, altitude, flood channel, geology, land use, rainfall, distance from the river, slope, soil, and drainage density. The weight of each criterion was used by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the weighted linear composition (WLC) method was used for spatial modeling and layer integration to prepare the flood potential map. The results of flood risk zoning showed that the 4th class as a high-risk category with 21.7% and the 5th class with a very high flood potential with 8.4%, more in the northern mountainous areas. And are located in the center of the region. In total, about 31% of the catchment area is covered by high to very high-risk flood areas, and because they have the most considerable role in runoff production, they should be given special attention in terms of watershed management. Classes one to three with low to medium flooding potential are located in low-lying areas, slopes, and plains of the center, south, and west of the basin and cover more than 69% of the area. Floods are one of the biggest global problems, so with the increasing intensity and frequency of floods, global concerns about increased mortality and economic losses due to floods have increased. In this research, using geographic information system (GIS), satellite images, synoptic station data, hierarchical analysis (AHP), and layer integration (WLC) method, flooding potential of Qarah_su catchment modeling Has been. The final flood risk map was prepared based on a combination of climatic and physical factors and elements, i.e., ten factors of vegetation, altitude, flood channel, geology, land use, rainfall, distance from the river, slope, soil, and drainage density. The weight of each criterion was used by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the weighted linear composition (WLC) method was used for spatial modeling and layer integration to prepare the flood potential map. The results of flood risk zoning showed that the 4th class as a high-risk category with 21.7% and the 5th class with a very high flood potential with 8.4%, more in the northern mountainous areas. And are located in the center of the region. In total, about 31% of the catchment area is covered by high to very high-risk flood areas, and because they have the most considerable role in runoff production, they should be given special attention in terms of watershed management. Classes one to three with low to medium flooding potential are located in low-lying areas, slopes, and plains of the center, south, and west of the basin and cover more than 69% of the area. Floods are one of the biggest global problems, so with the increasing intensity and frequency of floods, global concerns about increased mortality and economic losses due to floods have increased. In this research, using geographic information system (GIS), satellite images, synoptic station data, hierarchical analysis (AHP), and layer integration (WLC) method, flooding potential of Qarah_su catchment modeling Has been. The final flood risk map was prepared based on a combination of climatic and physical factors and elements, i.e., ten factors of vegetation, altitude, flood channel, geology, land use, rainfall, distance from the river, slope, soil, and drainage density. The weight of each criterion was used by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the weighted linear composition (WLC) method was used for spatial modeling and layer integration to prepare the flood potential map. The results of flood risk zoning showed that the 4th class as a high-risk category with 21.7% and the 5th class with a very high flood potential with 8.4%, more in the northern mountainous areas. And are located in the center of the region. In total, about 31% of the catchment area is covered by high to very high-risk flood areas, and because they have the most considerable role in runoff production, they should be given special attention in terms of watershed management. Classes one to three with low to medium flooding potential are located in low-lying areas, slopes, and plains of the center, south, and west of the basin and cover more than 69% of the area. Floods are one of the biggest global problems, so with the increasing intensity and frequency of floods, global concerns about increased mortality and economic losses due to floods have increased. In this research, using geographic information system (GIS), satellite images, synoptic station data, hierarchical analysis (AHP), and layer integration (WLC) method, flooding potential of Qarah_su catchment modeling Has been. The final flood risk map was prepared based on a combination of climatic and physical factors and elements, i.e., ten factors of vegetation, altitude, flood channel, geology, land use, rainfall, distance from the river, slope, soil, and drainage density. The weight of each criterion was used by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the weighted linear composition (WLC) method was used for spatial modeling and layer integration to prepare the flood potential map. The results of flood risk zoning showed that the 4th class as a high-risk category with 21.7% and the 5th class with a very high flood potential with 8.4%, more in the northern mountainous areas. And are located in the center of the region. In total, about 31% of the catchment area is covered by high to very high-risk flood areas, and because they have the most considerable role in runoff production, they should be given special attention in terms of watershed management. Classes one to three with low to medium flooding potential are located in low-lying areas, slopes, and plains of the center, south, and west of the basin and cover more than 69% of the area.
خلاصه ماشینی:
نتايج حاصل از پهنه بندي ريسک سيل خيزي نشان داد کـه طبقـه ٤ به عنوان رده اي با خطر زياد با ٢١/٧ درصد و طبقه ٥ نيز با پتانسيل سيل خيزي خيلي زيـاد بـا ٨/٤ درصـد، بيشتر در مناطق کوهستاني شمال و مرکز منطقه واقع هستند که در مجموع حـدود ٣١ درصـد از محـدوده حوضه آبريز را پهنه هاي سيل خيز خطرپذير زياد تا خيلي زياد در بر گرفته است و به دليل اينکـه بيشـترين نقش را در توليد رواناب دارند، بايد از نظر مديريت آبخيزداري موردتوجه ويژه باشند.
بر اساس يافته هاي دارند و پژوه ١٠ (٢٠١٩) سامانه هاي کم فشـار عربسـتان و مديترانـه در 1 Chang 2 Ezemonye and Emeribe 3 Sarhadi 4 Mukand 5 Saini and Kaushik 6 Qin 7 Meyer 8 Cherqui 9 Portugués-Mollá 10 Darnd and Pazhoh سطح زمين بيشترين نقش را در وقوع بارش هاي فراگير، شديد و بادوام ايران دارند و نيمه غربي و جنوب غربـي ايـران منطبق بر رشته کوه هاي زاگرس بيشينه تمرکز اين گونه بارش ها را به خود اختصاص داده اند.
(رجوع شود به تصویر صفحه) همان طور که در شکل ٢ نشان داده شده است ، در اين تحقيق به منظور ارزيابي پتانسيل سيل خيـزي ابتـدا معيارهـاي مربوطه بر اساس مطالعات پيشين انتخاب شده و سپس بر اساس نظريات کارشناسـي و بـا اسـتفاده از تکنيـک فراينـد تحليل سلسله مراتبي (AHP)، وزن دهي و در محيط سيستم اطلاعات جغرافيايي نقشه پهنه بندي سيل خيزي توليـد شـد.