چکیده:
زیست پذیری شهری رویکردی نو در جهت سنجش میزان توسعه بهینه شهرها می باشد که تحت تاثیر پیشرانهای مختلفی همچون مؤلفه های اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، کالبدی – فضایی، زیست محیطی و سلامتی-امنیتی شکل گرفته، روند تحولات آن منوط به نحوه اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری این پیشرانهای گوناگون و ارتباط بین آنها می باشد که آینده شهر را ترسیم می کنند. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی کلیدی ترین پیشرانهای مؤثر بر چشم انداز آتی زیست پذیری شهر مهاباد و بررسی چگونگی ارتباط بین آنها می پردازد. پژوهش حاضر بر حسب هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده پژوهی صورت گرفته است. با توجه به ماهیت این تحقیق، نخست با استفاده از روش روش گلوله برفی افتراقی تعداد 24 نفر از متخصصان و مسئولان اجرایی سازمانهای دولتی مرتبط با امور زیست محیطی همچون سازمان محیط زیست، شهرداری، فرمانداری و ادارات خدمات رسانی که بایستی در بحث مشارکت داشته باشند را شناسایی و انتخاب نموده و سپس از روش دلفی و مطالعات اسنادی برای تعیین پیشرانهای کلیدی استفاده گردید. همچنین از روش تحلیل ساختاری و نرم افزار Mic Mac جهت وزندهی و شناسایی مهمترین پیشرانهای اثرگذار بر زیست پذیری شهر بهره گرفته شده است. نتایج ناشی از تحقیق نشان داد که با توجه به امتیاز بالای تأثیرگذاری مستقیم و غیرمستقیم از میان 40 متغیر، 10 پیشران کلیدی از جمله؛ کیفیت شبکه معابر، برخورداری از روشنایی کافی در معابر، دسترسی به حمل ونقل عمومی و پارکینگ، میزان سازگاری کاربری ها، دسترسی به پیاده راهها و مسیرهای دوچرخه سواری، نسبت ساخت معابر پیاده رو به وسعت کل، درآمد کافی برای خانوارها، میزان سرمایه گذاری های دولتی، دسترسی کافی به تأسیسات شهری(اینترنت، برق، گاز و..) و میزان آلودگی هوا در آینده زیست پذیری شهر مهاباد تأثیرگذارند.
Extended Abstract:IntroductionThe city of Mahabad in the province of West Azerbaijan is one of the medium-sized and densely populated cities that due to the intensity of migration from rural areas like most cities in the country with issues such as illegal construction, uneven physical growth, intensifying the phenomenon of informal settlement and worn-out structures. , The existence of various environmental pollutants, etc. is faced. According to the current situation, about one third of the city's population lives in informal settlements, most of which are within the city's legal boundaries. Separation of urban classes and unfair distribution of urban services and lack of strategic planning will turn Mahabad into a city in the not too distant future whose indicators and components of livability will be difficult. Therefore, in this study, on the one hand, it tries to identify and evaluate the indicators and drivers of Mahabad viability in order to rank the variables and examine the relationship between them, and on the other hand, according to the key drivers identified on The basis of the futuristic approach, possible feasibility scenarios and future development of biodiversity indicators should also be presented.MethodologyGiven the nature of the present research and the horizontal that is intended for planning, the type of present research in terms of applied purpose; It is also a qualitative research in terms of the nature of the data. The research method is based on futuristic approach. It is also a qualitative research in terms of the nature of the data. The present study is based on the method of data collection and information, except documentary-survey research. In this research, based on differential snowball sampling, 24 specialists and executive officials of Mahabad city were identified and given a questionnaire, and then their opinions on the components of research in the Micmac software environment were examined. To determine the status of influence, influence and centrality of factors.Results and discussionThe output of Mick Mac software for moving the variables shown in the figure indicates that based on the indirect relationships between the variables, the effect power of the effective variables is reduced because most of the variables are moved down in region 2 down the coordinate grid. Regarding the vulnerability of the variables of Zone 4, the displacement of the satisfaction variable shows the quality of life downwards and to the right, which indicates an increase in the power of the influence of this variable. The ten drivers in the impact column had the largest share of direct impact, of which 8 variables in indirect impact were repeated with slight shifts, and only the variables "sufficient income for households" ranged from 7th to 12th and variable. The variable "air pollution rate" has also been moved from 10th to 14th. In effectiveness, 9 of the 10 propellants in the direct impact column are the same propellants with changes in rankings in indirect impact. According to Table 5, the variable "Quality of access to leisure and recreational uses" has been reduced from 10th to 11th and the variable "Visual quality of the street" has been moved from 11th to 10th.Considering the identified drivers and considering the five effective dimensions in the future development of Mahabad livability, the following suggestions can be provided: 1- Socio-cultural dimension: Forming people's associations for more people's participation and interactions between them, controlling the population growth of the city and controlling irregular migrations to Mahabad city in order to reduce air pollution and build new cities and towns and attract population overflows. , Increasing the per capita educational and cultural uses in the neighborhoods of the city in order to reduce the daily traffic of students; 2- Economic dimension: investing in private and public sectors to create jobs, organizing local markets, especially Tanakura market and commercial centers to prevent traffic, pollution and congestion; 3- Physical-spatial dimension: organizing the network of passages and developing sidewalks and bicycle paths, equitable distribution of centralized uses in the city center and injecting the required service uses into informal settlements and worn-out structures; 4- Environmental dimension: expansion and creation of belt green space around the city and inside the city of Mahabad to soften the city's air and prevent environmental degradation, encourage and spread popular culture to use public vehicles instead of private vehicles to reduce vehicle traffic And air pollution;ConclusionThe aim of this study was to identify and rank the key variables and drivers affecting the future development of livability in Mahabad and analyze the relationships between these variables with a futuristic approach. To achieve this goal, first, 24 specialists and executive officials who should be involved in the discussion were identified and selected, and then the most important drivers were identified and scored by Delphi method and through a questionnaire, which finally resulted in 40 drivers and five Socio-cultural, economic, spatial-physical, environmental and health-safety factors of cross-matrices were formed and in the next step, the obtained weights were applied using Mick Mac software and the intensity of direct and indirect influence of variables and Finally, ten key drivers were identified as the most important drivers of future development of livability in Mahabad. The results showed that the key and important drivers for the development of livability in Mahabad, which are the same influential variables with direct impact are: The quality of the road network Enough light in the passages Access to public transport and parking Usability compatibility Access to sidewalks and bike paths Ratio of sidewalk construction to total area Adequate income for households The amount of government investment Adequate access to municipal facilities (Internet, electricity, gas, etc.)KeywordsUrban Liability, Propulsion, Futurology, Cross-Effect Analysis, Mahabad