چکیده:
In this paper the relation of underground economy and tax gap in Iran has been examined. The results show that the underground economy size is almost 20 percent of GDP in Iran. In this research three methods of estimation of underground economy size has been used and combined to achieve a more precise estimation. The methods that have been used are: cash, fuzzy and latent variable methods. The size of tax gap in Iran has been over 30 billion dollars in recent years. Some new payment systems as ATM cause change in money velocity which makes it necessary that new factors to be taken into account
خلاصه ماشینی:
"In this method the unrealistic assumption of zero value for underground economy is not necessary, however to use this method money velocity should be estimated for formal sector and be used for informal sector.
However, we cannot estimate velocity of money in the informal sector and there is no option other than accepting the same velocity for money in formal and informal sectors: With assumption of zero rate tax: Let be the ratio of cash to deposits in the formal sector, then and with subtracting from, one can get the size of underground economy.
To estimate UE size from the regression mentioned above, tax burden term is deleted and the real balance of money in the absence of shadow economy (Theoretical reasons were presented before) is calculated: Then using the following equation size of underground economy is calculated: (9) Where is velocity of, is liquidity and is predicted liquidity from final regression model and is the size of shadow economy that is calculated from the equation (9).
Data of informal sector size as percent of GDP and tax and Insurance burden on employers With strategy of general to specific, the insignificant variable SOCIAL1 also is deleted from the model.
Figure 3: Relation between direct tax and UE size and money demand As the t-statistic of the tax coefficient in the estimated regression is not significant can be concluded that indirect tax has no effect on underground economy size in Iran.
But, the direct tax variable has significant positive relation with liquidity demand and therefore with the underground economy size."