چکیده:
The present paper investigated the impact of oil revenue on the inflation and growth rates of Iran in the period of pre-exchange rate reform of 1993. In doing so, dynamic equations for growth, inflation, the exchange rate, money and foreign inflation were estimated. The equations were then used to run a number of simulations of inflation and growth. As a result, it was found out that oil revenue only influences growth by a slow direct effect. Inflation is influenced by oil revenue through a direct effect, foreign prices, and the real exchange rate. The net effect is that greater oil revenue has tended to reduce inflation, though the effect has been greatest since the revolution. A large part of the volatility in inflation and growth appears to be due to the variation in oil revenue rather than boom in themselves
خلاصه ماشینی:
"Inflation is influenced by oil revenue through a direct effect, foreign prices, and the real exchange rate.
Fardmansh (1991c) argues that in some oil exporting developing countries, the oil boom appeared to give rise to The magnitude of this expansion depends on various elasticities operating in this process: income-elasticity of demand for non-traded goods, output-elasticity of supply with respect to the real wage and so on.
( 1) ( 2) where ( is the difference operator, ( is the lag operator, rnoyt is real non-oil output, e is the nominal exchange rate (Rial per US Dollar), ret is the real exchange rate, oilt is oil revenues, pdt is domestic prices, pft is foreign prices, ms is the money supply, md is the money demand, DRt is a post-revolution dummy which equals 1 since 1979 and 0 before, (jt is an error term, stars indicate a long run value, and lower cases indicate variables measured in natural logarithms.
In the long run, the real exchange rate is assumed to be a function of oil revenue, and the domestic-foreign price differential (through Purchasing Power Parity).
The short run direct negative effect of oil revenue on inflation is probably explained by the increased availibility of imports as a consequence of greater foriegn currency earnings, which takes pressure off domestic prices.
Whilst the oil boom initially caused inflation through the effect on foreign prices, over the medium and long run, oil revenue actually dampens inflationary pressure as the equilibrium real exchange rate rises after the revolution."