چکیده:
As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multi-country currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the US Dollar, the Euro or the Yen. In addition, it addresses the question of how co-movement of outputs and prices would respond to the formation of currency union and investigates the prospect of a Dollar, Euro or Yen currency union in the East and West Asia regions. For this purpose, we use data of 27 selected countries in East and West Asia during the period 1980-2006.Results show that the effective anchor for most of countries based on volatilities (volatility of price and volatility of output) criteria is the US Dollar.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the US Dollar, the Euro or the Yen. In addition, it addresses the question of how co-movement of outputs and prices would respond to the formation of currency union and investigates the prospect of a Dollar, Euro or Yen currency union in the East and West Asia regions.
Based on historical patterns of co-movements of prices and outputs, however, a country’s decision to join a monetary area should consider not just the situation that applies ex-ante that is, under monetary autonomy, but also the conditions that would apply ex-post, that is, allowing for the economic effects of currency union.
For further discussions of the optimum currency area literature see, for example: Bofinger (1994), De Grauwe (2003), Ishiyama (1975), Krugman (1992), Masson and Taylor (1992), Mongelli (2002), Tavlas (1993a, 1993b, 1994), Tower and Willet (1976) and Wyplosz (1997).
Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Jordon, South Korea and Kyrgyz Republic are six countries that stand on top of this table and show one geographically parameter for extension the high co-movement price whit Japan and converse Bahrain, Syria, Oman, India, Kuwait whit Iran stand on down table that these countries are West Asian countries.
5. Conclusion The basic implication of this paper is based on the historical data on co-movements of prices and outputs; we argued that for countries that have a higher degree of economic freedom the best anchor is dollar."