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فهرست مقالات

How International Financial Crisis Affects Industries in Beijing,Capital City of China

نویسنده:

علمی-پژوهشی/ISC (8 صفحه - از 57 تا 64)

کلیدواژه ها :

Financial Crisis ،Beijing’s Top Ten industries ،Impact Index ،Output Gap

کلید واژه های ماشینی : Crisis Affects Industries Beijing ، Beijing ، China ، GDP ، ARMA Model Beijing ، Financial Crisis Affects ، Beijing , Capital ، Impact Index ، ARMA GDP Beijing ، The Beijing

Beijing’s industrial structure is service-oriented with a high degree of economic openness, and GDP has maintained rapid growth. This paper analyzes the international financial crisis and the impact of China’s anti-crisis policies on Beijing’s economic development as well as its transmission mechanism. Impact Index (excluding seasonal factors) and ARMA Model are employed in the empirical study which involves the crisis affection on output and stability of Beijing’s top ten industries. Such conclusions are revealed: Beijing’s GDP losses more than 10% compared with its potential value; the growth rates of over 70% industries are decreasing in Beijing; shocks in financial and real estate are intensified. In the anti-crisis process, manufacturing, real estate, scientific research, technical services, geological prospecting, transportation, storage and postal industry have gained significant growing opportunities.

خلاصه ماشینی:

"Such conclusions are revealed: Beijing’s GDP losses more than 10% compared with its potential value; the growth rates of over 70% industries are decreasing in Beijing; shocks in financial and real estate are intensified. Gap rates in mining, manufacturing, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water, real estate, scientific research, technical service and geologic perambulation, traffic, transport, storage and post are positive, indicating that the financial crisis brings growth opportunities to these industries. Scientific research, technical service and geologic perambulation, real estate, traffic, transport, storage and post, modern manufacturing industries in Beijing already enjoy comparative advantage countrywide, with the help of support from government; these industries achieved obvious positive results (See Table 1). However, affected by China’s economic restructure and economic stimulus plans, Beijing’s industries, such as real estate, scientific research, technical services, geological prospecting, transportation, storage and postal industry have gained new growing opportunities from this round of financial crisis. 2): Overall Performance of Ten Industries in Financial Crisis Industry Stability Degree of Deviation Impact direction Mining, Manufacturing, Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water unstable Strong positive Finance extremely unstable Strong negative Wholesale and Retail Trade stable very weak positive Information transfer, Computer services and Software unstable Strong negative Real estate extremely unstable very strong positive Tenancy and Business services Unstable Strong positive Scientific research, Technical service and Geologic perambulation Stable Weak not obvious Traffic, Transport, Storage and post Unstable Strong positive Construction Unstable Strong negative Education Stable Weak not obvious Source: Authors Reference Beijing Municipal Commission Development and Reform (2009), 2008 Beijing Service Industry Development Report."


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