چکیده:
n this paper we have studied the adoption rate of mobile phone in Iran via the new technology diffusion models approach. The result show that its diffusion pattern has a S shaped curve which is consistent with logistic model. Effective factors in diffusion pattern are: population, GDP, digitalization of the telecommunication system, government expenditures on the telecommunication sector, price of mobile phone and the inflation rate. We have also found that the logistic model has a batter explanatory power than the time series models.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"According to his study the effective factors in the penetration coefficient of mobile phone in Finland were digitalization of the telecommunication system, population, GDP, and land- phone.
According to their findings the logistic models predict the penetration coefficient better than time service model and the explanatory factors which were used in Frank's model are also effective in Korea.
2- The Models a) Compertz (1825) has introduced the diffusion pattern of new technology with the following equation: (1) If we use equation (1) for mobile, we will have as the number of subscribed mobile phone in time t, which K, ( and ( are parameters.
b) Grilichez (1957) has also introduced the following equation for a S shaped curve, which also has been used by Frank (2004) for studying the diffusion pattern of mobile phone.
In this article we have utilized the Frank's model which can be explained as follows: According to equation (2) we had: (6) Where is the potential recipients of mobile phones; b, the relative growth rate of diffusion which varies in time.
3- Variables and Data Digitalization of the telecommunication system of Iran started in 1989, after that, the penetration rate of land phone and mobile phone increased dramatically.
According to table 4 the logistic model can predict diffusion of mobile phone in Iran better than ARMA model.
According to our finding GDP, digitalization of the telecommunication system, population, government expenditures on telecommunication sector have had positive effects on the diffusion of mobile phone in Iran, while its price and inflation have had a negative effect."