نویسنده: Pirasteh، Hossein؛
پاییز 1382 - شماره 9 ISC (28 صفحه - از 45 تا 72)
The historical experience of many developing countries show that many developing world has not paid enough attention and is not giving serious thought to its agricultural sector. In fact, nearly all the countries that have “undervalued” their agricultural sectors not only failed to grow rapidly, but they all encountered domestic food shortages, balance of payment crisis and some sort of political instability. To develop, industrialization is not enough. Industrialization as a path to development can not succeed without the prior or concurrent emergence of a productive agricultural sector. Using time series data, this paper shows that variation in industrial growth has been significantly associated with variation in agricultural growth over the first period of the development process in Iran. It has further demonstrated that agricultural growth induced productivity increases, and therefore facilitated overall economic growth. Moreover, the role of agriculture was even far important than that of exports in fostering productivity in the post-revolution era. Agricultural growth compensated for the small contribution made by export growth and smoothed some of the adverse effects of inflation.
"Keyword: Mono – Export Economy, Dutch Disease Problem, Sources of Productivity Growth, Chenery – Syrquin Model I- Introduction This paper intends to analyze statistically the significance of the contribution of agriculture to economic and productivity growth of Iran, a country that has undergone significant political, social and economic changes over the last quarter of the century. Despite the upsurge in deficit - financing, particularly in the last years of the first period, it is clear that Iran''''s economic growth between 1959 and1973 was fuelled by the exports of all main sectors, agriculture, oil and manufacturing. IV- The Model Historical research on the early stages of growth of currently developed countries indicates that the industrial revolution started in countries that had already experienced substantial increases in agricultural productivity. Moreover, some simulations with single-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have indicated that an agricultural development-led industrialization strategy leads to higher rates of economic growth, more equitable income distribution, more rapid industrialization, and a better balance of payment status. This assumption makes it possible to test the hypothesis that at times when the agricultural sector was experiencing a high rate of growth, the (non-oil) industry was also performing considerably well: (3) where, q is a randomly distributed error term. Second, the considerable factor contribution reversals to output changes, is Table 1: Sources of Economic & Productivity Growth in the Economy of Iran (1959-1997) [به تصویر صفحه مراجعه شود."
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