چکیده:
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ: ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎ و ﻣﻮاﻧﻊ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ- ﻓﻀﺎﯾﯽ، اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﺸﻮﯾﻖﮐﻨﻨﺪه ﯾﺎ ﺑﺎزدارﻧﺪه در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ وﻗﻮع ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺑﺮاﺳﺎس آﻣﺎر رﺳﻤﯽ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ارﺗﮑﺎﺑﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ 12، ﺑﯿﺶ از ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 12 دارای 3/17 درﺻﺪ ﮐﻞ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ و 2/7 درﺻﺪ ﮐﻞ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺖ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ 9/32 درﺻﺪ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﺷﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان در آن رخ داده اﺳﺖ. ﻫﺪف ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻞ ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮی ﮐﺎﻧﻮنﻫﺎی ﺟﺮمﺧﯿﺰ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 12 ﮐﻼﻧﺸﻬﺮ ﺗﻬﺮان ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎی ﻧﻈﺮﯾﮥ ﻣﮑﺎن اﻧﺤﺮاﻓﯽ ﻣﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﺑﺮ ﻓﻘﺮ، ﻓﺮﺳﻮدﮔﯽ، ﺗﺮاﮐﻢ، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ و ﺳﯿﺎﻟﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ( اﺳﺖ. داده و روش: ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻫﺪف، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدی و روش آن ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻔﯽ- ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﮥ آﻣﺎری ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺤﺪودة ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ 12 در ﺳﺎل 1395 اﺳﺖ. ﺣﺠﻢ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ 70 ﻧﻔﺮ از ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن، ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن، ﻣﺪﯾﺮان، اﻧﺠﻤﻦﻫﺎی ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ و ﻣﺸﺎرﮐﺖ ﺷﻬﺮی ـ ﺷﻬﺮوﻧﺪی و ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﻬﺮداری 12 اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﻠﻮﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﻓﯽ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ. ﻫﻤﯿﻨﻄﻮر ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﺑﻪ وﻗﻮع ﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻪ در ﺳﺎل 1395، ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞﻫﺎی آﻣﺎری ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. از روشﻫﺎی آﻣﺎری ﮔﺮاﻓﯿﮏﻣﺒﻨﺎ در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﮥ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻐﺮاﻓﯿﺎﯾﯽ و آﻣﺎرة T اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارﻫﺎی Arc GIS و SPSS ﺑﺮای ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ دادهﻫﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﺟﺮم در ﭘﻬﻨﻪﻫﺎی ارگ ﭘﺎﻣﻨﺎر، ﻓﺮدوﺳﯽ-ﻻﻟﻪ زار، ﺑﻬﺎرﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﻌﺪی، ﻣﺨﺘﺎری ﺗﺨﺘﯽ، ژاﻟﻪ آﺑﺴﺮدار ﻗﯿﺎم، ﮐﻮﺛﺮ، دروازه ﻏﺎر ﺷﻮش و ﺳﯿﺮوس اﺳﺖ. ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ درﺻﺪ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ در ﺑﻠﻮکﻫﺎی 60 -80-100 ،60-80 ،40 درﺻﺪ ﺑﯽدوام رخ داده اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﺟﺮم در ﮐﺎرﺑﺮیﻫﺎی ﺗﺠﺎری )55 درﺻﺪ ﮐﻞ ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ(، ﻣﺴﮑﻮﻧﯽ )21/07 درﺻﺪ(، ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺗﯽ )9/82 درﺻﺪ(، ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ و ﮐﺎرﮔﺎﻫﯽ )6/96 درﺻﺪ(، ﺣﻤﻞ و ﻧﻘﻞ و اﻧﺒﺎرداری )4/46 درﺻﺪ( و ﻓﻀﺎی ﺳﺒﺰ )1/78 درﺻﺪ( اﺗﻔﺎق اﻓﺘﺎده اﺳﺖ. ﺳﯿﺎل ﺑﻮدن ﺟﻤﯿﻌﺖ ﺷﺐ )240 ﻫﺰار ﻧﻔﺮ( و روز)2 ﻣﯿﻠﯿﻮن ﻧﻔﺮ( ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺷﺐﻣﺮدﮔﯽ و ﺟﺮاﯾﻢ ﺷﻬﺮی در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪﮔﯿﺮی: ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آزﻣﻮن t ﺗﮏﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪای، ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﻌﻨﺎداری ﻣﻮﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎی ﻧﻈﺮﯾﮥ ﻣﮑﺎن اﻧﺤﺮاﻓﯽ ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از 0/05 اﺳﺖ، ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ آﻧﻬﺎ و ﺷﮑﻞﮔﯿﺮی ﮐﺎﻧﻮنﻫﺎی ﺟﺮمﺧﯿﺰ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﮥ 12 راﺑﻄﮥ ﻣﻌﻨﺎدرای وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻋﺪم ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﺖ ﻣﺆﻟﻔﻪﻫﺎی ﻓﻘﺮ، ﻓﺮﺳﻮدﮔﯽ، ﺗﺮاﮐﻢ، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮی اراﺿﯽ و ﺳﯿﺎﻟﯽ ﺟﻤﻌﯿﺖ )ﮐﻤﺘﺮ از 3(، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ ﻣﻨﻔﯽ ﺑﻮدن آﻣﺎرهﻫﺎی t، ﺣﺪﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﻻ و ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ و ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ 12 ﺗﺄﯾﯿﺪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.
Introduction: The 12 District population is equivalent to 17.5 percent of the Tehran population total and covers 2.7 percent of the Tehran area total; However, 32.9 percent of Tehran's crimes was committed in 12 District. The purpose of the present research is causes explanation of Hot-spot crimes formation in Tehran Metropolitan 12 District based on location deviation theory components (poverty, worn texture, density, and land use and population fluidity). Data and Method: This article is an applied and descriptive-analytic one. Graphical statistical models have been used to spatial patterns identification of crime distribution in the city. For the data analysis, has used graphic-based statistical methods in GIS and T-statistics and Arc / GIS and SPSS software. Results: Crime concentration has happened in the Arg Pamenar, Ferdowsi-Laleh Zar, Baharestani Saadi, Mokhtari Takhty, Jaleh Absardar Qayyam, Kowsar, Gushesh Shoosh and Siruszones. The crimes percentage highest occurred in worn out blocks of 60-40 percent, 80-60 percent, 100-80 percent. The crime rates highest were in commercial use (55 percent of total crimes), residential (21.07 percent), services (9.22 percent), industrial and workshop (6.96 percent). The population fluidity of the night (240 thousand people) and the day (2 million people) has caused the phenomenon of night-life and urban crime. Conclusion: Based on the one-sample t-test, the significance value of the research components is less than 0.05. The inadequacy of the components of poverty, burnout, density, land use and population fluidity (less than 3) has been confirmed due to the negative t-statistics, high and low limits and low average in region 12.