Determination of Concession Period in Build-Operate-Transfer Projects Using Fuzzy Logic مقالة

مؤلف: Nasirzadeh، Farnad ؛ Khanzadi، Mostafa ؛ Alipour، Majid ؛

Iranian Journal Of Management Studies July 2014, Volume 7 - Number 2 التصنيف: العلمية - البحثية/ISC (‎20 صفحة - من 437 إلی 456 )

الکلمات المفتاحية: fuzzy logic BOT Risk Management Concession period Determination NPV Operate Fig

خلاصة:

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) projects are a popular method of privatization of public infrastructure development. There are several risks which might affect a BOT project negatively. Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract which should be determined considering the existing risks and uncertainties. A longer concession period is more beneficial to the private investor, whereas a prolonged concession period may result in loss for government investments. On the other hand, if the concession period were too short, the investor would either reject the contract offer or would be forced to increase the operation fees in order to recover the investment costs and to make a certain level of profit. In this paper, the concession period is determined using a new fuzzy logic based methodology. The proposed approach accounts for the existing risks and uncertainties. In the proposed methodology, the interests of both parties would be ensured and a win-win solution would be achieved. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology, the methodology was implemented in a highway project.

ملخص الجهاز:

Determination of Concession Period in Build-Operate- Transfer Projects Using Fuzzy Logic Farnad Nasirzadeh1, Mostafa Khanzadi2, Majid Alipour3 1. In this contract, the private company obtained a 99-year concession from the Egyptian government for the construction and operation of the canal connecting the Mediterranean and Red Seas (Levy, 1996; Shen & Wu, 2005). Operate-Transfer Concession period is one of the most important decision variables in arranging a BOT-type contract, and there are few methodologies available to help determine the value of this variable (Shen et al, 2007). In this research, the variables that were measured include total capital investment, construction duration, toll price, operation and maintenance cost and annual traffic volume. After determination of the input factors affecting the NPV and concession period of a BOT project as fuzzy numbers, the extension principle is employed to determine the NPV value. The total capital investment of the real highway project was determined as a triangular fuzzy number of (120,125,140) million dollars, where 120,125 and 140 represents the minimum, most likely, and maximum values of capital investment, respectively, as shown in Fig. 3. NPV value variations throughout project life cycle In order to determine the fuzzy number of the concession period, the above-mentioned calculations should be repeated for different values of α-cut. The values of different input factors affecting the concession period were determined by fuzzy numbers based on the opinions of different experts involved in the project. The values of different input factors affecting the concession period were determined by fuzzy numbers based on the opinions of different experts involved in the project.

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