خلاصة:
In recent years, investigating synchronization of business cycles
among countries, after increasing integration of global economies,
has been attracted more attention of policy makers and researchers.
Perhaps an unknown origin of such similarities, as an open
question, is the main reason of these interests. So, with regard to
the mentioned question, the aim of this paper is to investigate some
probably determinants of synchronization among Iran’s main trade
partners. Therefore, in the first step, in order to measure business
cycles, some parametric and non-parametric techniques are used.
Then, applying several criteria, the degree of synchronization is
determined. After these two steps, employing IV-GLS and QR
estimators, the relationship between business cycles and trade
intensity index, as a possible channel of synchronization, has
considered. The result shows that an increase in trade intensity
index increases business cycle synchronization for all 21 sample
countries. Also, this result remained almost unchanged when we
divided sample into some subsamples. It is worthy to note that due
to the endogeneity of independent variable, the gravity equation
and Helpman theorem(1981) are employed. In these equations,
some variables such as GDP, common borders and distance had
significant effects on trade intensity and hence on business cycles.
ملخص الجهاز:
"After these two steps, employing IV-GLS and QR estimators, the relationship between business cycles and trade intensity index, as a possible channel of synchronization, has considered.
The result shows that an increase in trade intensity index increases business cycle synchronization for all 21 sample countries.
In these equations, some variables such as GDP, common borders and distance had significant effects on trade intensity and hence on business cycles.
The similarity of business cycles between pair countries will be statistically significant if obtained value for Harding-Pagan index is above 0.
So, in order to study this theory among main trade partners of Iran we first investigate the conditional correlation of trade intensity and business cycles similarity and then endogenity assumption of independent variable ( XM (i, j) ).
1. Heterocedasticity and Outliers tests So far, we have assumed the business cycle synchronization as a linear function of the trade intensity and other control variables.
4) Based on the Harding-Pagan index, the synchronization of business cycles among Iran and some other countries such as Kuwait, UAE, Turkey and Malaysia were significant.
5) Conditional and unconditional correlation between business cycles and trade intensity index was positive and significant for sample economies.
It is worth noting that there are some other factors potentially affecting business cycles synchronization but with regard to the subject of this paper which directly emphasizes on trade's role we just use trade intensity indices in our analysis."