چکیده:
ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿـﺮ، ﺑـﻪ ﺑﺮرﺳـﻲ ارﺗﺒـﺎط ﺑـﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈـﻪﻛـﺎری ﺷـﺮﻃﻲ در ﮔﺰارﺷﮕﺮی ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و رﻳﺴﻚ ﺳﻘﻮط آﺗﻲ ﻗﻴﻤـﺖ ﺳـﻬﺎم ﻣـﻲﭘـﺮدازد. ﺑـﻪ ﻣﻨﻈـﻮر دﺳﺖﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ اﻳﻦ ﻫﺪف، دو ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪی اﺻﻠﻲ و ﺳﻪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪی ﻓﺮﻋﻲ ﺗﺪوﻳﻦ ﺷـﺪه و ﺟﻬﺖ آزﻣﻮن اﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎ، ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪای از ﺑﻴﻦ ﺷـﺮﻛﺖﻫـﺎی ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘـﻪ ﺷـﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﻃﻲ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎی 0831- 8831 اﻧﺘﺨـﺎب ﮔﺮدﻳـﺪ. ﻳﺎﻓﺘـﻪﻫـﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺣﺎﻛﻲ از آن اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈـﻪﻛـﺎری ﺷـﺮﻃﻲ و رﻳﺴـﻚ ﺳﻘﻮط آﺗﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم، راﺑﻄﻪ ی ﻣﻌﻜﻮس وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻫـﻢ ﭼﻨـﻴﻦ ﻧﺘـﺎﻳﺞ اﻳـﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲدﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ در ﺷﺮاﻳﻄﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺪﻳﺮان و ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔـﺬاران ﻋـﺪم ﺗﻘﺎرن اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻲ وﺟﻮد دارد، ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎری ﺷﺮﻃﻲ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ رﻳﺴﻚ ﺳﻘﻮط آﺗﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم ﺑﻴﺶﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ.
Introduction: Being aware of the financial situation of the firm and being more familiar with investors and creditors، managers as those who are responsible for providing financial statement، try potentially to make a good picture of the firm’s conditions. Therefore، they tend to delay the disclosure of bad news and identify the good news as soon as possible. Manager’s tendency to hide bad news causes stock price crash risk and generally negative skewness of stock return. Conservatism as a governing mechanism، through enforcing the possibility of asymmetric confirm for recognizing earning and losses، results in the acceleration of identifying bad news versus good ones. Consequently، it prevents piling of bad news in the company and decreases possibility of sudden releasing of bad news in the market.
Research Questions or Hypothesis
The main purpose of the present study is to investigate the relationship between conditional conservatism in financial reporting and the future stock price crash risk. To do this، two main hypotheses and three subsidiary ones were specified. The hypotheses of this research are as follows:
H1: conditional conservatism in financial reporting reduces the future stock price crash risk.
H2: the impact of conditional conservatism on reducing future stock price crash risk is greater for firms with higher information asymmetry.
To test second main hypothesis، the following three subsidiary hypotheses were specified.
H2a: the impact of conditional conservatism on reducing future stock price crash risk is greater for firms that operate in monopoly markets.
H2b: the impact of conditional conservatism on reducing future stock price crash risk is greater for firms that have no institutional investors in their ownership structure.
H2c: the impact of conditional conservatism on reducing future stock price crash risk is greater for firms that have lower than 50% outside directors on their board.
Methods: To test the hypotheses، a sample was selected among the listed companies in Tehran stock exchange (TSE) during 1380-1388(2001-2009). Also، to measure conservatism، the measure of conditional conservatism by Khan and Watts (2010) was used and the method of logistic regression and the model of pooled data were applied. To examine the significance of all resulting coefficients، t-test and z-test were used.
Results: The results of estimated models showed that، there is a negative relationship between conditional conservatism and future stock price crash risk. So، the first main hypothesis is not rejected in confidence level of 95%. The results also showed that when there is a sort of information asymmetry among managers and outside investors، the ability of conditional conservatism for decreasing future stock price crash risk is more. So، the subsidiary hypotheses and the second main hypothesis are not rejected in confidence level of 95%.
Discussion and conclusion: In this study، the relationship between conditional conservatism and future stock price crash risk of companies listed in TSE were investigated. Findings of this research showed that conditional conservatism in financial reporting; reduce future stock price crash risk. In other words، conservative accounting prevents the accumulation of bad news through enforcing managers to timely disclosure of such news. Hence، conservative accounting decreases the probability of sudden releasing of bad news in the market and consequently reduces future stock price crash risk.
Results also showed that، the ability of conditional conservatism to reduce future stock price crash risk is greater for firms with higher information asymmetry. Namely، those operating in monopoly markets، have no institutional investors in their ownership structure and have lower than 50% outside directors in their board. When there is information asymmetry، managers have incentives to delay the disclosure of bad news and accumulate them within the firm. Given that information asymmetry results in conservative accounting، one could expect that، for firms with higher information asymmetry، the ability of conditional conservatism to reduce future stock price crash risk is greater.
خلاصه ماشینی:
" ﻣﺠﻠﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖﻫﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، دوره ﭼﻬﺎرم، ﺷﻤﺎره دوم، ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ و زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1931 401 ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻮق، ﺟﻬﺖ آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪی اﺻﻠﻲ دوم، ﺳﻪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪی ﻓﺮﻋﻲ ﺗﺪوﻳﻦ ﮔﺮدﻳﺪ و در ﻫﺮ ﻳﻚ از اﻳﻦ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎی ﻓﺮﻋﻲ، ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻳﻜﻲ از ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎی ﺳﻪﮔﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﮕﺮ ﺷـﺮاﻳﻂ ﻋﺪم ﺗﻘﺎرن اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻲ، ﺑﺮ راﺑﻄﻪی ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎری ﺷﺮﻃﻲ و رﻳﺴﻚ ﺳﻘﻮط آﺗﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم ﺑﺮرﺳﻲ ﺷﺪ.
ﻧﮕﺎره 3 : ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪ ی ﻓﺮﻋﻲ 2- 1 , CRASH α , α CSCORE , α CSCORE , HICON , α HICON , q Control Var ,ξ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺧﻄﺎی ﺿﺮﻳﺐ آﻣﺎرهz p-value اﺳﺘﺎﻧﺪارد ﺑﺮآورد ﺷﺪه ﻧﻤﺎد ﻋﻨﻮان 0α 910/0 53/2- 63/0 648/0- ﻋﺮض از ﻣﺒﺪأ CSCORE 100/0 82/4- 295/0 535/2- ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎری ﺷﺮﻃﻲ CSCORE*HICON 600/0 1/4- 530/0 541/0- - HICON 300/0 42/4 730/0 751/0 وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺑﺎزار ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت SIZE 206/0 25/0- 441/0 570/0- اﻧﺪازهی ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ROA 687/0 72/0 720/0 700/0 ﺑﺎزده داراﻳﻲﻫﺎ DTURN 410/0 86/3 750/1 298/3 ﻋﺪم ﺗﺠﺎﻧﺲ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران SIGMA 010/0 70/4 980/1 334/4 اﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم RET 720/0 10/3- 323/0 379/0- ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم NCSKEW 910/0 81/2 969/3 256/8 ﭼﻮﻟﮕﻲ ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺑﺎزده ﺳﻬﺎم 02/0 ﺿﺮﻳﺐ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻚ ﻓﺎدن آﻣﺎره LR 62/242 اﺣﺘﻤﺎل آﻣﺎرهLR 8200/0 ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﺬﻛﻮر، در ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ﻣﻲﺗﻮان ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻛﻪ در ﺷـﺮاﻳﻄﻲ ﻛـﻪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ در ﻳﻚ ﺑﺎزار اﻧﺤﺼﺎری ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺖ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ، ﻋﺪم ﺗﻘﺎرن اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣـﺪﻳﺮان داﺧﻠـﻲ و ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬاران ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ و در ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻈﻪﻛﺎری ﺷـﺮﻃﻲ ﺟﻬـﺖ ﻣﺠﻠﻪ ﭘﻴﺸﺮﻓﺖﻫﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، دوره ﭼﻬﺎرم، ﺷﻤﺎره دوم، ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ و زﻣﺴﺘﺎن 1931 601 ﻛﺎﻫﺶ رﻳﺴﻚ ﺳﻘﻮط آﺗﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺳﻬﺎم، ﺑﻴﺶﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ."