چکیده:
Iranian Economic Review, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1998
ECONOMIC POLICY ANALYSIS IN A
MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL FOR [RAN
By:
-
Mchdi Ph.D
ABSTRACT
In this paper an attempt is made 10 incorporate the major
characteristics of the Iranian cconomy inlo a macroeconomic
model. We have maintained a specilication of the model as
general as possible and used widely accepted developing
country specifications. A unified data set provided by the
IMF's 1FS is uscd and we have relied on an appropriate
cconometric technique lor the estimation of the model's
paramcicrs. For the purpose of dynamic simulation of the
model we have utilised a computer program ol ordinary
substitution method.
The Iranian expericnec is ol considerable importance nol
least because of the Tole this country plays in the Middle East
and also its position as a founder member of the Economic
Co-operation Organisation {ECO) which consists of Iran,
Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and six newly independent
states of the former Soviet Union.
[n this paper we aim
خلاصه ماشینی:
In order to test the effects of government development expenditure and domestic bank credit on private capital formation, these two variables are also included in the private investments fuction, All agents in the economy arc assumed to be price- takers for imports in the international markets while exerting some monopoly power over the price of exports in the world market.
official exchange rate Y'= Real world income (approximated by OECD income in 1985 price) P' = World consumer price indp (WCPI) r = International interest rate (3 months London market) ir,= formal interest rate charged by the domestic banking system L = Labour force Table 3 Definition of the endogenous variables of the model Ad = Real aggregate demand Da = Real domestic absorption C = Real private consumption Yd = Real disposable income Pi = Real private investment Ti = Real total investment X = Real export Z = Real import Y = Real aggregate output G = Real total government expenditure T = Real total government revenues Dtax = Real direct taxation Nft = Nominal net factor income from abroad Ca = Nominal current account of the balance of payments Fae = Nominal foreign assets earnings (in foreign exhchange terms) Bop = Nominal balance of payment (in foreign echchange terms) Fr = Nominal foreign exchange reserves (in foreign exchange terms, US dollars) Fp = Nominal foreign assets held by private sector (in foreign currency terms) Fg= Nominal foreign assets held by public sector (in foreign currency terms) M = Nominal money supply (broad definition of money i.