چکیده:
This article has considered the volume and direction of
[ran’s trade using the gravity model. The major issue in this
analysis is to explore why Iran over or under-traded with the
76 countries relative to the predicted trade flows of the
model. The study attempts to explore the reasons from the
respect of both the model itself and Iran’s trade structure.
This is done by analvsing the performance, like most of the
developing countries, lying in natural-resource-based
manufactured goods (i.e., hydrocarbons and agricultural
products), and labour-intensive products (i.e. textile fibre and
carpet). Part of these products (primarily arricultural) face
quantitive restrictions imposed by the industrial countries,
such as EU countries. What adds to the problem is the
existing competition with similar exported products (i.e.,
textile and carpet) between Iran and other developing
countries. However, the advantage of a relatively adaptable
labour force gives [ran an opportunity to exploit her
labour-intensive products. Having this advantage in this
domain does not remove the necessity for a greater effort in
improving the quality of the labour force so as to enhance the
quantity and quality of the products.
خلاصه ماشینی:
The equation used is similar in all studies and has the following general specification: a I a 2 r� r� a 5 re 6 a:, Xi. i=a0(�) (Yi) (NJ (Ni) (Di. i) (Aii) (Pii) qi (1) Where Xii is the value of the trade flow from country i to country j; Yi and Yi are the values of the nominal GDP in i and j; Ni and Ni are the size of population in both countries; Dii is the physical distance from the economic center of country i to that of country j; Aii is any other factor either aiding or hindering trade among i and j; Pii is the trade preferences among the countries, and U;i is a log-normally distributed error term with E(ln U;i) = 0.
The variables are measured in the following units: Trade flows (X): in millions of US dollars; Domestic Product (Y): in million of US dollars; Population (N): in millions of inhabitants; Distance (D): in thousands of nautical miles; Adjacency dummy Aii takes value 2 for the countries which share the same land border.
The insignificant coefficients on the dummy variables such as the ECO integration (Iran, Turkey and Pakistan) suggest that this economic integration scheme is not sufficiently deep to influence the mutual trade between member countries significantly.
Comparing the EU and the EFTA dummy variables, it can be seen that both of them have a positive sign in this regression indicating that economic integration has a positive effect on trade flows among industrial countries.