چکیده:
The foreign exchange market (FX market) accounts for 40% of the total volume of the world’s e-commerce by its own. Based on statistics, sometimes up to 90 per cent of the traders lose their total capital in this market just within six months to one year and leave this market. The probability of loss in the FX market can be estimated by probability theory. The present paper intends to demonstrate the loss in the FX market within the frameworks of some developed theoretical models using the data on the exchange rates for the currency pairs (EUR/ JPY, USD/ EUR) for the time interval of February-October in 2013. According to the results of simulation of the loss in the FX market, a number of factors including the leverage level, the volatility of the exchange rate for the currency pair, inflation rate, spread, the number of the transactions and the number of sudden stop transactions are directly related to the percentage of the loser traders so that any decrease in the above-mentioned factors is accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of the losers in the FX market. Furthermore, based on experimental results, the loss probability in this market is as much as 60% for the lower leverage levels. This value amounts to 99% for the higher leverage levels.
خلاصه ماشینی:
"The present paper intends to demonstrate the loss in the FX market within the frameworks of some developed theoretical models using the data on the exchange rates for the currency pairs (EUR/ JPY, USD/ EUR) for the time interval of February-October in 2013.
According to the results of simulation of the loss in the FX market, a number of factors including the leverage level, the volatility of the exchange rate for the currency pair, inflation rate, spread, the number of the transactions and the number of sudden stop transactions are directly related to the percentage of the loser traders so that any decrease in the above-mentioned factors is accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of the losers in the FX market.
In the present paper the related literature is reviewed briefly in section 2; the respective theoretical principles within the framework of probability theory are discussed in section 3, Using the proposed theoretical model and the data on the transaction rates for the currency pairs, in section 4, it will be shown that statistically and experimentally a significant number of investors face the loss of some or the entire capital.
Hence, given the theoretical models developed based on the probability theory and using the new data, the present study tried to evaluate the inevitability of the loss of most traders in the FX market.
In addition, based on the results, the percentage of the loser traders depends on the volatility intensity of the transaction rates for the exchange being traded, inflation rate, spread and level of leverage."