چکیده:
This paper attempts to re-investigate the catching-up (stochastic convergence) hypothesis among the selected 16 OECD countries applying the time series approach of convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century. To reach this aim، we propose a model which specifies a trend function، incorporating both types of structural breaks – that is، sharp breaks and smooth shifts using dummy variables and Fourier function respectively. In order to detect the sharp breaks، we apply the multiple structural break models (Bai & Perron، 1998) and the Fourier function proposed in Becker et al. (2004) to capture the smooth shifts. Our results show that most divergence process occurred over World War I (WWI) and World War II (WWII). Among the 69 estimated break points occurred over the period 1870-2010، 75 % of those break points result in catching-up and the remainder results in divergence.
خلاصه ماشینی:
e. , Australia [1941], Austria [1944], Belgium [1944], Canada [1946], Denmark [1943], Finland [1944], France[1945], Germany [1945], Italy [1942], Japan [1944], Netherlands [1945], Norway [1944], Sweden [1944], Switzerland [1944], United Kingdom [1946], and USA[1945]) occurred in 1940s that are coincided with years World War II (WWII).
Figure 1 displays the time paths of the relative per capita real GDP (blue line) and the estimated flexible trend function (red line) for each country.
Figure 1: Log Relative per capita Real GDP (Blue Line) and Estimated Trend Function with Sharp Breaks and Smooth Shifts (Red Line) for 16 Selected OECD Countries, 1870-2010.
Conclusion In this paper we attempt to re-test the catching-up hypothesis among the 16 OECD countries using the time series approach of stochastic convergence hypothesis with annual data over one century.
In order to detect the sharp breaks, we use the multiple break models proposed in Bai & Perron (1998), and we apply the Fourier function proposed in Becker et al.
The tests also show that all relative per capita real GDP series have experienced shapes breaks and smooth shifts.
Time-Series Test of Nonlinear Convergence and Transitional Dynamics.
Time Series Test of Convergence and Transitional Dynamics.
Panel Unit-Root Tests of OECD Stochastic Convergence.
Time-Series Based Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis: Some Positive Results.
Convergence of International Output: Time Series Evidence for 16 OECD Countries.
Income Convergence in African Countries: Evidence from a Stationary Test with Multiple Structural Breaks.
Time Series Evidence with two Structural Breaks.